Opinion The unravelling in Nepal

But Yami’s outburst reflects the fast deteriorating relationship between the CPN-M and the Nepali Congress which decided to work together to establish peace and institutionalise democracy through a new Constitution that the elected constituent assembly will draft.  However,the spirit of togetherness has already evaporated,and writing the Constitution within the stipulated timeframe (May 2010) seems not only difficult,but impossible.

The signs are showing. The CPN-M has now resorted to ordinance raj as at least 18 out of 25 political parties represented in the constituent assembly including the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML),a major partner in the coalition government headed by the Maoists,have joined hands to find an alternative to the government leadership. Koirala,the prime initiator of the move,has said that he will be happy to support Madhav Nepal,former general secretary of the UML as the new prime minister in Prachanda’s place. All these moves may gain momentum soon after the national congress of the UML ends on February 18.

From ‘We will capture power if we are removed from the government’,Prachanda’s mellowed response to the protest is “there is no alternative to my leadership yet’.  Political parties got a wind of the ‘capture move’ as the Maoist leadership and ministers went public humiliating the Nepal army,the only institution that it thought was capable of resisting the Maoist takeover.  It was at this stage that the political parties led by Koirala emerged as the army’s patron even though the security agency,which has been confined to the barrack ever since the peace process began,defied the Maoist defence minister’s instruction to stop recruitment for nearly 2800 vacancies.

And there are genuine reasons for the political parties to explore new equations. Finance minister and Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai not only asserts that new Constitution will be something that Maoists alone will want (“not a single letter of what we do not want will be there in it”),he has taken total control of major financial institutions in the country by appointing hand-picked people in the board of governors. The finance ministry has also formed a task force for revenue mobilisation,especially from tax evaders,and has involved Maoist cadres in a big way — something that business community fears will lead to large scale extortion for private and party purposes than filling the government coffers.  After all,the Maoists’ notoriety in extortion is not only well known,it is something that other armed groups — about 42 in number — across the country are following.

Where will the collapse of the present government and the peace process lead the country to? The international community,perhaps with the exception of some Scandinavian countries and Switzerland,have expressed their frustration with the Maoists’ failure to honour their commitments. Prachanda,however,still asserts that the international donors have promised Nepal an all time high assistance — 42 billion rupees in past few months —but they are hesitant to hand over the amount as the finance ministry is diverting sizeable amounts of the funds to the Maoists controlled NGOs. Adjourning the legislature and ruling through ordinances have made things easier for the Maoists for now,but time is definitely running out.

The next few days will be far more critical for the Maoists as they have to decide which way they want to respond to the growing political protest. If they decide to recruit more people in the ‘Peoples Liberation Army’ (PLA),something that Maoist combatant leaders have been suggesting as a way to retaliate against the recruitment in the Nepal army,that will be the surest way to provoke a confrontation,both political and armed,in the country once again.  That will also be the end of an experiment to convince the armed insurgents that what cannot be achieved through guns can be achieved through peace.

yubaraj.ghimire@expressindia.com