Opinion The Syrian isolation

Matters have gone from bad to worse for Syria. It had only just been given the boot from the AL and now fresh sanctions target the regime’s longevity. Syria was once considered the beating heart of pan-Arab nationalism,and now it finds itself friendless. Eighteen of 22 member states voted for sanctions. It has been mandated there will be no Arab transactions with Syria’s central bank. All Arab investment in Syria will be halted,all commercial flights between Syria and AL states will end next week and travel bans will be imposed on Syrian officials. Damascus has retaliated. Foreign Minister Walid Moallem has called the act a “declaration of economic war”.

In the changing Middle East,the AL has fashioned itself a new role and the message is simple: this is not the fractured body of yesteryear. Once upon a time,the League members could agree on one policy and that was the decision to boycott Israeli goods. In the past,the AL never intervened in matters of Arab states,nor did it ever lift an angry finger at member states. Inaction was so endemic that it failed to act when Hafez al-Assad (Bashar’s father) flattened the city of Hama in the 1982 uprising,killing over 3,000 people. The body also remained divided over intervention in Kuwait when Iraq invaded it in 1990.

The Arab Spring has given authority to new stakeholders and spearheading the drive to democratise are Saudi Arabia and Qatar. They now captain the body as the traditional centres of command,Egypt and Syria,are embattled in their crises. The two Gulf countries have fretted over Syria for long,especially over the country’s alliance with non-Arab and Shia Iran. Saudi Arabia has a lot at stake here: for long,its restive Shia minority has clamoured for greater freedom — putting a lid on Syria serves the kingdom well. Qatar has used the Arab Spring to rise as a mediator in the Middle East: it has positioned itself as the moderate emirate. Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani has been vocal,calling on Syria to implement AL demands “immediately”.

Of course,the AL’s sanctions will hurt Syria and may well take away the country’s last ally: the business community. The regime has survived on the merchant community. The business elite,which has exercised restraint and refrained from participating in the protests,has traditionally sided with the regime as they are recipients of its patronage. But should they take to the streets in Damascus and Aleppo,the tide could turn against Bashar’s government. Mohamad Bazzi of the US-based think-tank,the Council on Foreign Relations,says strikes by the business community could change everything: “Strikes could cause widespread closure of businesses,activities that we saw in the lead-up to the Iranian Revolution that brought down the Shah.”

Syria is struggling and Bashar is well aware of this. In June,the strongman appeared on TV and identified the real threat in Syria: “The most dangerous thing we face is the weakness or collapse of the Syrian economy.” In my trip to Syria last month,credit cards were no longer accepted and money was in short supply. Both tourism and oil had taken a severe blow and people on the street were likening Syria to a barter economy.

There’s more: the UN has classified the crisis in Syria as a civil war,and a new dangerous development threatens civilians. The armed opposition group has formally allied with the political opposition. In my trip to Homs,gunfire was heard and the government showed no signs of retreating. In this Arab Winter,civilians in Syria,the ones asking for freedom,are at great risk.