Opinion The road to Mandalay

The ethnic tensions amongst minorities the agreements were meant to defuse have plagued the Burmese since British rule; with independence they exploded into a full-blown civil war between the army and the minorities. JNU academic G.V.C. Naidu says these minorities are both “religious and linguistic”; he adds that,“depending on their military strength,they have controlled up to 30 per cent of Burma’s territory at any one time.” Thant Myint-U in The River of Lost Footsteps gives us a sense of the longevity of these conflicts: “Some of the very same groups that first took up arms in the 1940s,when Mahatma Gandhi was languishing in a British jail and Joe Louis was heavyweight champion of the world,are still duking it out today.” That’s what makes the Burmese civil war the “longest-running armed conflict in the world.” The junta has been keen to point towards it as its raison d’être.

So why is the junta shaking up this unholy alliance? International scorn,mainly. That’s forced the army towards a makeover of sorts. Its “Roadmap to democracy”,a seven-point programme,includes the replacement of the military regime by one nominally elected as soon as next year. Though naturally,the junta will cling on to major handles of power,not devolving much authority at all. The constitution creates a state in which 25 per cent of the seats would be allocated to the junta,and the president would be from the military. 

Within this set-up the ethnic minorities’ demands remain unaddressed. Barring one clause on “self-administered zones” under direct presidential control,they receive little. No concessions to federal principles seem likely. 

The biggest point of contention,however,is the clause which requires armed groups to lay down their arms and be integrated into the national army,or serve as border guards. This hasn’t gone down well. Analysts with the International Crisis Group and at Jane’s expect further increases in fighting. The ethnic groups have in the past united against the government and may do so again. Currently,the government is fighting the Wa and Kachin minorities. The Karen might be drawn in as well.

But what if these groups could unite? Even if they entered the junta-sponsored “elections” — which Rangoon would like,as it would adding to any legitimacy the elections might have — would they form a credible opposition?

 Ethnic minorities are acutely aware of the electoral dominance by the major ethnic group,the Burmans,as the 1990 elections made all-too-clear. Suu Kyi’s party obtained 392 seats (81 per cent) and the ethnic parties obtained 70 seats (14 per cent). Unsurprisingly the Ethnic Nationalities Council,which seeks to represent seven ethnic ceasefire states,has stated that despite its non-participation,“it would support the decision of ceasefire organisations should they decide to form or support political parties.” Hence the policies of the Kachin Independence Organisation,who despite possessing an army have endorsed the Kachin State Progressive Party. The key difference: rather than focusing on a purely ethnic platform,as did its parent organisation earlier,the party stands on a platform that talks of issues relevant to the entire state’s administration. Naturally,this increases its acceptability to voters.

 Talks with the Kachin have meandered because of the governments’ hesitation over political grievances. The Karen,with their long-standing history of defiance are unlikely to come to the negotiating table. Nor are the Wa. Even within each group,divisions and splinter organizations proliferate. This disunity has traditionally given the Junta an upper hand.

The simple truth is that no matter how doctored the elections are,there will be a complete restructuring of the political structure. For groups representing the north’s minorities,this is a wake-up call: should they unite,they could benefit from the restructuring — and the Junta’s rule might face credible opposition. 

The current top-down structure is,after all,to be replaced with a bicameral legislature and fourteen regional governments and assembles in the “most wide-ranging shake-up in a generation.” Within this new structure a unified northern bloc could be a force to reckon with.

alia.allana@expressindia.com