and the BJP. This has given Rajasthan politics a clear bipolar alternation since the Congress dominance came to an end. The last two decades have witnessed a steady erosion of the political influence of non-Congress and non-BJP parties.

Both the Congress and BJP embarked on the electoral journey early,with the Sandesh Yatra and the Suraj Sankalp Yatra respectively. The Sandesh Yatra,under the stewardship of Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot,was designed to inform people about the Congresss achievements.

A very aggressive posturing was made by the government through advertisements. Most of this focused on welfare measures in the shape of free medicines and medical investigation,low-cost housing and foodgrains for the poor,scholarships and laptops for students,pension schemes,interest-free loans to farmers,etc. Infrastructure development,like the Jaipur Metro,the Barmer refinery,new rail and road networks,power generation plants,colleges and universities,were also emphasised. It was stressed that the government has sought to cover all segments of the population.

The Suraj Sankalp Yatra,launched by Vasundhara Raje,was planned to present the state BJPs vision of Rajasthans future. However,for the most part,the yatra targeted the poor performance of the Congress governments at the Centre and in

the state. The government was criticised for poor,delayed

and inadequate delivery of welfare schemes,deteriorating law and order,communal tension,corruption and,above all,the acute price rise.

No less a critical factor in this election will be the in-house preparedness of the two parties. Both suffer from domination by a single leader. The state Congress is totally dominated by Gehlot,who converted governance into a CM-centric model,bypassing ministers and relying on senior bureaucrats. This has led to dissatisfaction among party leaders and workers. The consequent tug-of-war between Gehlot and Delhi-based senior leaders often occupied media space. Raje,on the other hand,seems to have learnt lessons from her past mistakes. She has sought to accommodate the interests of senior state BJP leaders and placate the RSS. Her rapport with the BJPs prime ministerial candidate,Narendra Modi,has also consolidated her position.

It needs to be reiterated that political contestation in Rajasthan is essentially bipolar. In all the assembly elections since 1998,the Congress and BJP together have cornered more than 70 per cent votes and almost 90 per cent of the seats. The BSP,which made some impact in the last decade,amassed more than 7.5 per cent votes in 2008 and won six seats. However,the partys failure to build its leadership and cadre became conspicuous when all its MLAs joined the Congress in 2009.

In the current election,one player who has made his presence felt is former BJP leader and Lok Sabha MP Kirori Lal Meena. After leaving the BJP,Meena has had several ups and downs. In the last year,he has travelled extensively through the tribal regions. He has formed the National Peoples Party,with the support of former Lok Sabha speaker P.A. Sangma. It has focused on tribal deprivation and hopes to do well in nearly 40 constituencies. However,given the differences among tribals in eastern and southern Rajasthan,it will be interesting

to see how much support the NPP ultimately gets and which major party the Congress or BJP it damages more.

Except for the Brahmins,and to some extent the Rajputs,who have a pan-Rajasthan presence,other social groups are concentrated in different locales. The SCs and STs account for nearly 30 per cent of the population,minorities comprise a little over 10 per cent,and the OBC segment is estimated to be about 35-40 per cent. The unreserved category makes up the remaining 20 per cent. The Congress has received

a large part of its support from the SC,ST,Muslim,Jat and some OBC sections. The BJP is more popular among the reservation-less groups and sections of prosperous OBCs. In the last decade,there have been some shifts. However,one does not see any major shift in the social support bases of the two parties in this election.

A final matter is whether there will be a departure this time from Rajasthans long trend of alternation between the Congress and BJP. A number of pre-poll surveys,in the last month,appear to show that the trend will hold. An incumbent governments performance is indubitably an important factor,but closer to the polls,what assumes significance is electoral management. Electoral management such as candidate selection,campaigning,channelling of resources,mobilising voters,etc tends to assume a salience in tight contests. Where a small vote swing has a decisive impact on the outcome,efficient electoral management,rather than actual performance,may just make the difference.

The writer is associate professor,department of political science,Mohan Lal Sukhadia University,Udaipur