Opinion Shiv Sena’s poaching fear and Congress going solo: What coalition crises mean for Maharashtra’s BMC polls

On the one hand, there have been instances where ministers of the Shiv Sena (Shinde) boycotted the cabinet meeting, accusing the BJP of poaching their members. On the other hand, Congress, a crucial ally in the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), has declared its intention to go solo, citing its reservations on contesting elections alongside Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). In recent months, Shiv Sena (UBT) has reportedly grown closer to the MNS on the issue of Marathi language and the “Marathi manoos.” Such developments reveal the underlying fault lines that shape Maharashtra’s contemporary politics.

The fragility of such coalition politics could be attributed to a few reasons. First, since the local government elections are closely contested, the smaller parties have a considerable presence and impact. Building effective coalitions and mobilising the locally dominant parties becomes the key to success. Second, in 2024, the BJP, consecutively for the third time, emerged as the single largest party in the Lok Sabha. Its poor performance in Maharashtra didn’t deter the party from becoming the single largest party in the assembly elections later the same year. Now, they are eyeing the BMC, where the Shiv Sena has never lost control in the last two decades.

However, this time, in the changed circumstances, it will be a challenge for the Shiv Sena (Shinde) to retain its position. Its subordinate position in the coalition and reported dissent within the party might impact its performance. The uncertainty over poaching also looms large. Still, given the dominant role of the BJP and its ability to handle the coalition crisis, the Mahayuti is unlikely to suffer much.

The crisis within the Maha Vikas Aghadi is much deeper. For Sena (UBT), the BMC election seems to be a fight over the legacy of Sena; a struggle for Uddhav Thackeray to claim his father’s party’s glory that was first written in the BMC elections. Perhaps, in a bid to restore the primacy of the family, he seems to be allying with his estranged brother Raj Thackeray and invoking the pride of “Marathi manoos”. Moreover, the indications that the Sharad Pawar-led NCP might also go solo have affected the perceived image of the MVA.

In these circumstances, the local body elections of Maharashtra have the potential to restructure the politics of the state. It seems to be a fight between the BJP and the rest, who are trying to retain or reinvent their positions in the politics of the state.

The writer teaches at Rashtrasant Tukadoji Maharaj Nagpur University, Maharashtra