Opinion Re-engineering the world
Why we should discuss the next big thing to fight climate change.
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Rank depression had set in following last years UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen,which many believed had provided the world its best opportunity yet to craft a global plan to limit carbon emissions. No binding agreement was reached; a meeting of environment ministers later this month in Cancun is also not expected to yield much progress,especially after the recent Republican victory in the US mid-term elections. At the same time,many scientists believe that even if countries agreed to a plan to significantly decrease carbon emissions,it may be too late. 2010 is well on its way to being the warmest year on record,and the earth could have already passed a tipping point after which serious disruption to our climate and,in turn,our economic and political systems,becomes inevitable.
In the face of these political failures and mounting concerns in the scientific community,many are looking to a Plan B in which humans actively intervene to control the earths climate or geoengineering. Although geoengineering is still rarely discussed in India,it should not be ignored. India,like much of the world,may soon find itself alternatively looking to geoengineering for salvation and as a potential threat.
Although it may sound fanciful,congressional and parliamentary committees in both the US and Britain are encouraging further study of geoengineering and have agreed that consideration for the[ir regulatory arrangements… needs to start now. Indeed,serious scientists,like Nobel prize-winning atmospheric chemist Paul Crutzen,think geoengineering might be our best hope to avoid climate calamity. Last year,a prominent panel of economists,including three Nobel Prize winners and Jagdish Bhagwati,ranked geoengineering alternatives on the basis of costs and benefits,and recommended immediate research into several of them.
There are two commonly proposed types of geoengineering options. The first involves removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Its proponents advocate alternatives like spreading special plankton in the ocean to soak up carbon at a far faster rate than plant life on the planet currently can. The second form of geoengineering most frequently suggested involves reflecting some of the suns rays away from the planet,such as by shooting phosphorous into the atmosphere to mimic the cooling effects of a volcano. Both geoengineering alternatives build on natural processes that already affect the climate,but humans would intervene in new ways to amplify and direct these effects.
India should study the solutions that geoengineering proposals promise seriously. India is,after all,under current projections,likely to be amongst the countries worst hit by climate change. It is also of concern,though,that were geoengineering to go wrong,the consequences could potentially be worse than climate change itself. For example,the monsoon could inadvertently be affected,causing widespread crop failure on the sub-continent. Equally,we should be mindful that some recommending it might be interested merely in maintaining the status quo.
Even if humans successfully controlled the effects of geoengineering,it would produce a thicket of governance challenges. Countries like Russia might be agriculturally more productive with an earth two degrees warmer,while India might be better off with an earth two degrees cooler than today. Who would decide the earths temperature? The question could cause open conflict between countries,or citizens and their governments.
India needs to ensure that it has both the technical and political expertise to respond to geoengineering proposals. Proposals come in various forms: for example,simply planting more trees to soak up carbon to decrease the worlds temperature,technically counts as geoengineering. But that is intervention of a different degree from putting an aerosol into the atmosphere to reflect the sun to cool the planet. India,like other countries,needs to be able to independently study the merits of these proposals,while at the same time encouraging that any decisions about geoengineering take place in as global and democratic a forum as possible.
The status quo on climate change is becoming more and more unviable. Increased discussion of geoengineering alternatives,and even reported small-scale testing,including by a German-Indian expedition near Antarctica last year,signal that the debate is shifting. Seriously limiting carbon emissions should still be the first goal as the world meets in Cancun later this month,but if this fails or proves inadequate,large-scale adaptation or geoengineering may be the only other options left. Adaptation moving vulnerable populations,changing farming practices,building dikes against the sea,and so on may ultimately prove preferable to the risks of geoengineering,but geoengineering can no longer be ignored. To this,India and the rest of the world will have to adjust.
The writer is an assistant professor at Jindal Global Law School,Sonipat express@expressindia.com
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