Opinion Recurring cloudbursts in the Himalayas are a clarion call for action

Cloudbursts are not a new phenomenon in the Himalayas, where complex topography and orographic lifting create ideal conditions for intense rainfall. Warm, moisture-laden monsoon winds from the Bay of Bengal or Arabian Sea collide with cooler Himalayan air, forming cumulonimbus clouds that unleash torrential downpours. Jammu and Kashmir, with its steep slopes and narrow valleys, is particularly vulnerable, as seen in the 2025 Ramban tehsil cloudburst that killed three, including two children, and damaged 40 homes.

Climate change exacerbates these events by increasing atmospheric moisture. Research from the Ministry of Earth Sciences (1969–2015) notes a rise in short-span, high-intensity rainfall events, with the Western Himalayas seeing one additional cloudburst per decade. Rising temperatures, glacial retreat, and increased convective activity further intensify these disasters, making them more frequent and severe.

The impacts of cloudbursts are catastrophic, particularly in Jammu’s districts like Kishtwar, Doda, and Ramban, where settlements on fragile slopes are easily washed away. The Kishtwar cloudburst destroyed entire hamlets, with traditional stone-and-mud houses collapsing under debris flows. Infrastructure losses, such as the repeated blocking of the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway, disrupt connectivity and delay relief efforts. Livelihoods, especially in agriculture and animal husbandry, suffer as fields and livestock are swept away. Moreover, water contamination from sewage and debris heightens health risks, while displacement and trauma affect vulnerable populations, including children and the elderly. The economic toll is immense, with recovery efforts straining local and national resources.

Current disaster management frameworks, while improving, fall short in addressing the cloudbursts’ hyper-localised nature. The Disaster Management Act of 2005 and the National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM) provide a foundation, but detection remains a challenge. Doppler radars and rain gauges often fail to capture cloudbursts due to their small scale and rapid onset, with warnings arriving too late for remote areas with sparse sensor networks. The IMD’s Ensemble Prediction System and Flash Flood Guidance System offer some forecasting capability, but their resolution is insufficient for precise, timely alerts. Additionally, hazard mapping is inadequate, leaving many villages unaware of historical flood paths or safe zones. Unregulated construction in high-risk areas, driven by tourism and pilgrimage demands, exacerbates vulnerability.

To address this crisis, India must prioritise policy interventions that enhance preparedness and resilience. First, investing in high-resolution meteorological networks is critical. Expanding Doppler radar coverage and establishing dense rain gauge systems in cloudburst-prone regions like Jammu can improve forecasting lead times, potentially up to 12-14 hours. The Himalayan Cloud Observatory in Uttarakhand, currently in testing, is a promising model that should be scaled across Jammu and Kashmir to study cloud dynamics and improve predictions.

Second, early warning systems must be paired with robust communication networks. Mobile-based alerts, as used by the IMD and NDMA, should be expanded to ensure real-time dissemination to remote communities, overcoming connectivity gaps. Community training programs and drills, as recommended by the NDMA, can empower locals to respond swiftly.

Third, land-use planning must be revolutionised. Detailed hazard maps using historical data and satellite imagery should guide floodplain zoning and restrict construction in high-risk zones. Enforcing building codes for flood-resistant structures and retrofitting existing ones can reduce structural failures. Urban and rural infrastructure, such as stormwater drainage and slope stabilisation systems, must be designed to handle sudden water surges.

Finally, addressing climate change is non-negotiable. Cloudbursts are becoming more intense due to global warming, with increased moisture and glacial melt amplifying risks. India must integrate climate adaptation into disaster management, supporting research into cloudburst triggers and fostering collaboration with international organisations to share best practices.

The recurring cloudbursts are a clarion call for action. By combining advanced forecasting, resilient infrastructure, community preparedness, and climate-conscious policies, India can mitigate the devastating impacts of these extreme weather events. The cost of inaction is too high — lives, livelihoods, and entire communities hang in the balance. Policymakers must act decisively to protect vulnerable regions and build a future where nature’s fury is met with human resilience.

The writer is special advisor for South Asia at the Parley Policy Initiative, Republic of Korea