Opinion Raza Kazmi writes: As India’s tiger numbers rise, a troubling trend can be seen
Tigers are thriving in certain landscapes of the country and disproportionately adding to the increasing tiger count, while other former tiger landscapes have lost all or most of their tigers
While it's important to celebrate the steady increase in tiger numbers since 2006, an analysis of the overall picture of tiger distribution across India reveals a few worrying trends. (AP Photo) 
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The results of the 2022 tiger census, declared yesterday at a conference marking the 50-year celebrations of Project Tiger, have pegged the number of tigers in India at a minimum of 3,167 big cats — a slight increase against the 2,967 recorded in 2018. The uptick in numbers has brought about much cheer across the board. While it’s important to celebrate the steady increase in tiger numbers since 2006, an analysis of the overall picture of tiger distribution across India reveals a few worrying trends. One of the most important benchmarks for the successful conservation of a species is observing its occupancy trend (that is, the geographical area it occupies) rather than merely relying on absolute numbers.
A study of past tiger distribution and census reports reveals a curious trend. Tigers seem to be thriving in certain landscapes of the country and disproportionately adding to the increasing tiger count, while other vast former tiger landscapes have either lost all, or most, of their tigers. If one were to observe India’s tiger distribution map, the divide is clear. Tigers over the past 50 years have increased both in numbers, and even in some cases areas occupied by them, in the western half of the country while their numbers, and occupancy, have collapsed entirely in the eastern half save for a couple of exceptions. This is in glaring contrast to the situation in 1972 when the tigers (numbering 1827 according to the 1972 census) were more-or-less evenly distributed across the length and breadth of India. A comparison of the 1972 tiger distribution map against the 2022 map highlights this near-complete disappearance of tigers in the east-central Indian states and north-east India’s hill states over the past 50 years. Over the decades, tiger populations have completely collapsed across five east-central Indian states — Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh – except for two isolated tiger metapopulations in this region, which are Similipal in Odisha and Nagarjunasagar Srisailam-Amrabad spread over Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. The 2022 Summary Report notes a further decline in tiger occupancy in these states compared to 2018. In 1972, these states accounted for nearly half of the country’s then-tiger population.
A similar story unfolds in north-east India where tiger numbers have collapsed across the forests of north Bengal and across all the north-eastern states except Assam. The only notable tiger metapopulations across north-east India are Kaziranga, Manas, and Orang, all in Assam. Back in 1973, tigers were common across Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh with marginal populations in Tripura and Manipur. Today, except for two small populations in Dibang (Arunachal Pradesh) and Nameri-Pakke along the Assam-Arunachal border, tigers are functionally extinct from all these regions.
We have 53 tiger reserves today, against the nine that we started with in 1973 on the eve of the launch of Project Tiger. However, a careful study of these reveals that in at least 15 tiger reserves the big cats are either extinct/functionally extinct (have no resident population or breeding population, usually reporting a roving transient male migrating into these forests once every few years) or teetering on the edge of extinction (that is with populations having whittled down to single digits). Tigers were already extinct/functionally extinct in Palamau (Jharkhand), Satkosia (Odisha), Udanti-Sitanadi (Chhattisgarh), Buxa (West Bengal), Dampa (Mizoram), and Namdapha (Arunachal Pradesh) for some years now and the 2022 report has added two more tiger reserves to this unfortunate list — Sahyadri (Maharashtra) and Kawal (Telangana). Moreover, the two recently declared tiger reserves of Rajasthan viz. Ramgarh-Vishdhari and Mukundara had been tigerless for many years and now a couple of big cats have been moved into each from Ranthambore tiger reserve to rebuild the tiger population in these two reserves. Consequently, for now, one may consider these two reserves to be a part of the aforementioned list of tiger reserves where the big cats are functionally extinct. In addition, the following reserves have the big cats either in very low density or teetering on the edge of extinction — Indravati (Chhattisgarh), Ranipur (Uttar Pradesh), Achanakmar (Chhattisgarh), Kamlang (Arunachal Pradesh), and Srivilliputhur Megamalai (Tamil Nadu). In fact, the tiger summary report notes that tigers have gone locally extinct from Sirvilliputhur (which forms part of the Srivilliputhur Megamalai tiger reserve), along with Sirsi and Kanyakumari forests.
The 2018 census observed that “tiger occupancy was found to be stable at 88,985 sq km at the country scale since 2014 (88,558 sq km)”, while noting that “there were losses and gains at individual landscapes and state scales”. While the full report for the 2022 census is yet to be released, the summary report now hints that there have been further losses in occupancy in many regions while the gains are only in a few. Tiger numbers and occupancy has risen only in Shiwalik-Hills & Gangetic plains (comprising of tiger habitats in Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, along with recent movement in Shiwalik hill forests of Himachal Pradesh), the states of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan (primarily because of Ranthambore’s tigers spilling over). On the other hand, the summary report notes that tiger occupancy has further declined (compared to 2018) across east-central Indian states, but worryingly notes a decline in tiger occupancy and numbers outside Protected Areas (Tiger Reserves, National Parks, Wildlife Sanctuaries, etc.) even in otherwise previously well-performing tiger states such as Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. “The Nilgiri cluster is home to the world’s largest tiger population, but recent data shows a decrease in tiger occupancy throughout the Western Ghats”, the report notes.
Fifty years on since the beginning of Project Tiger, the looming threat of the global extinction of tigers seems to have been averted with the scheme being widely credited as one of the most successful programmes in the history of global conservation. However, the challenge and focus now must be towards reversing declines in tiger occupancy, reviving collapsed populations in one half of the country, while ensuring protection of existing healthy tiger populations elsewhere.
The writer is a conservationist and wildlife historian
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