Opinion Not double or nothing

And since India has made statements bordering both on the vague and the ambitious on saving large numbers of tigers,it would certainly be good PR to join other tiger range countries,as they push for a joint declaration that wild tigers will double worldwide by 2022. But India has said no. In perhaps the first official admission that our tiger numbers cannot go up hugely — till now,the contrary claim has been loud — India is set to oppose the declaration,which in all likelihood,will be adopted at a Head of State summit in Russia at year-end.

China,Bangladesh,Bhutan,Cambodia,Laos,Nepal and Vietnam have more or less agreed to the draft declaration,but India is instead going on record that tiger numbers cannot be substantially higher here,and may not cross 2,500. This is the first time that this has been spoken aloud — and it may actually be hitting the nail on the head.

In climate change-esque international summits,numbers,and deadlines,are thrown about; but tiger numbers aren’t quite the same. And therein lies what should be seized and built upon: instead of an obsessive focus on population numbers,the focus has to be on preserving so many other things around the tiger,which get routinely forgotten in the numbers debate — jacking up protection,moving 80,000 families out of tiger reserves,and filling up hundreds of vacant forest staff positions.

Close to 50,000 sq km fall within the protected area network of reserves dedicated to the tiger in India. Close to 1,500 tigers in India — half the world’s total wild tiger population — are actually spread out over 90,000 sq km. But while the size difference between those areas is huge,80 per cent of the tigers are confined to the protected area network,solid proof that tigers can be saved from poachers only with rigorous protection regimes.

Wildlife ecologists say that 300,000 sq km of India are potentially good tiger habitat. But this never-never land will probably not happen; and so what remains is optimising the protected 50,000 kilometres. Within this are areas where poor protection has meant that tiger numbers are not swelling as they should — including areas within the Naxal belt,the reserves of Indrawati,Palamau,Simlipal,Buxa and Valmiki.

But what of the reserves which are doing well? In the odd success cases of Corbett,Bandhavgarh and Ranthambhore,healthy tiger populations have lead to tigers also dying. Tigers straying off-reserve have been poached or poisoned; and in two successive cases in Bandhavgarh run over by vehicles,once by a tourist,and the other time,allegedly by the forest department itself. So while there is space in our imagination for “many,many” tigers,we have no policies in place for actually dealing with what happens when tiger populations go up,and the animals spill out of the reserves.

On Tuesday,Myanmar announced another impressive number — 6,400 km,the size of their new Hukuang valley protected reserve dedicated to the tiger,the world’s largest. Their challenge will now be to use this area as well as possible,creating genetic security,and tracking and protecting tigers that stray out of the protected area,in which most of our reserves perform poorly.

By declaring conservative numbers,India may actually be doing itself a favour. As long as it remembers its commitments to all that makes tiger numbers possible in the first place.

neha.sinha@expressindia.com