Opinion Turmoil in Nepal has introduced a new element in its politics, the Army

In the mayhem that followed the 27 hours of protests that began on September 7, “criminal” elements infiltrated the movement and targeted top political leaders belonging to major parties, the Nepali Congress and Communist Party of Nepal-unified Marxist Leninist, and their close allies, politicians and business houses, some of them their known financiers. The main Opposition, the Maoist Centre, was not spared as it has led the government multiple times, and its party’s top brass is also seen as involved in corruption.

Nepali Congress chief Sher Bahadur Deuba was humiliated and his wife Arzu Rana was brutally assaulted, and their homes as well as the residences of former Prime Ministers and influential leaders were set ablaze. A huge volume of currency notes — Nepali and dollars — were reduced to ashes, and the episode was caught on camera. To many, it confirmed that they were living on ill-got money.

Prime Minister Oli and his wife, Radhika, along with all cabinet ministers, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, and fellow judges, were all rescued and placed in protective custody at the Nepal Army barracks. Nepal became the third South Asian country, after Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, where people have revolted against the political class, with youth responding with greater fury.

Oli, the man who has demonstrated his ruthlessness in curbing protest or dissent, acted no differently. In March, in the wake of spates of pro-monarchy rallies, he heeded the Nepal Army’s warning that former King Gyanendra Shah’s arrest would bring a situation that may go out of control. But this time, he ignored their warning that the youth’s fury may not be contained by bullets. The next day, his house was burnt and he quit, unapologetically.

But the developments do not seem to have instilled much hope in the Himalayan nation. Karki’s tenure is six months, and holding elections within the deadline, something that does not look feasible, is her only mandate. How will the interim government sustain the state’s morale? How will it sustain the economy? The loss or damage in those 27 hours runs into trillions and has demoralised investors. While the ensured personal property is worth around Rs 3,000 crore, going by insurance data, the destruction of the Singha Durbar, the China-built Convention Hall, and many other unique architectural pieces were priceless monuments.

The recent developments have brought in a new actor, the Nepal Army, for the first time in national politics. The relation between the Nepal Army and the political establishment, mainly identified with the Maoists, UML and Nepali Congress, has been marked by a trust deficit, especially after the 2006 political change and peace process. Western players and Nepali actors not only sought to downsize it even before the peace process was complete, but also denigrated it as the king’s private army. The political leadership did not own any responsibility for the human rights violation cases during the decade-long Maoist insurgency, when it performed the nation’s duty constitutionally.

But with political parties discredited and the political establishment on the run, the Army is acting like a mediator among the Gen Z protestors, who do not have a clear political agenda, the anti-corruption NGOs, and some individuals like Kathmandu Mayor, a major supporter of the movement. But the cost of failure will be enormous.

The major political parties are not happy with the dissolution of parliament, and a tussle between Karki on one side and President Poudel, the Vice President, seems imminent.

The current mess in Nepal is an outcome of the mishandling of the situation after King Gyanendra yielded to the demand of the mass movement that wanted him to hand over power to G P Koirala, the consensus leader of the movement, in April 2006. But soon after, the parties breached the understanding that Nepal would function as a constitutional monarchy and multiparty democracy and India, which had pledged continuity of its policy of supporting the twin-pillar theory, backed out.

One thing will determine the resolution to Nepal’s impasse: Whether the Army will invite all political forces to a dialogue, address the politics of exclusion largely endorsed by major parties and external stakeholders in the peace process or will it refuse to learn from history.

Karki, given her track record of having ordered the trial of certain senior Maoist leaders in the insurgency era human rights violation cases, which the successive governments were blocking, may also have to take a clearer stance this time. Will she have the courage to constitute meaningful commissions of inquiry into corruption in high places? As of now, she seems determined to ask for the resignation of Prem Rai, chief of the anti-graft constitutional body, for shielding Oli and other top leaders despite cases against them.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged all support initiatives for peace, progress, and prosperity. China has promised to promote relations based on the five principles, the US has called for an early election, and the Dalai Lama wished the Nepali people all success. But the key to all that is a national consensus at home.

The writer is Kathmandu-based contributing editor, The Indian Express