Opinion Into new orbits

What are the next frontiers for India’s space programme? Should it focus on building fleets of satellites,sending probes to the moon and Mars,or human space flight? An optimal space strategy would involve a combination of economic,scientific and strategic missions. Still,India will have to cross important technological thresholds,allocate sufficient resources and channel these in the right proportion to realise this strategy.

India’s space agency conducts two main activities: it builds satellites used for earth observation,communications,meteorology and now navigation,and it builds the rockets to launch these satellites. Its reliable Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV),which has had 22 successful flights since the late 1990s,can carry one-tonne earth observation satellites to low-earth-orbit (LEO). Images from these satellites have found useful economic applications in areas ranging from agricultural and environmental monitoring to geology and urban planning. The PSLV also carries other payloads — an upgraded PSLV launched the IRNSS satellite,and earlier,in 2008,launched India’s lunar orbiter.

India’s more powerful Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) has been less successful,having failed four of its seven flights between 2001 and 2010. The GSLV uses the PSLV’s first two stages and has a cryogenic engine,initially built by Russia and now built by India,in its third stage. It can carry four-tonne payloads to LEO or two-tonne communication satellites to a higher geostationary earth orbit (GEO). Its successor,the GSLV Mark 3,will be able to lift four-tonne communication satellites,capable of carrying a larger number of transponders and facilitating a greater volume of communications,to a GEO. Thus,India’s main technological challenge in the coming years is to perfect the GSLV and GSLV Mark 3. Until these rockets are proven,India will have to launch its heavier communication satellites aboard European Ariane rockets.

India’s space programme is also affected by financial constraints. In recent years,on a budget of $1-1.5 billion,it has annually conducted two to three space launches. It will have to increase its budget to be able to conduct perhaps five launches annually in the next several years. If it does,then it could launch about 50 satellites on Indian rockets,and some 10 more on foreign launchers over the next decade. India could make optimal use of these assets by allocating 10 to 15 per cent toward strategic military applications,10 to 15 per cent for scientific purposes and 70 to 80 per cent for socio-economic applications. It could also build up the ground segment of its space programme,increase private sector participation and focus more on space research rather than just on space applications.

The end result would be a formidable space force by 2020-25. India could then have five to 10 dedicated military satellites. It could undertake scientific missions,such as a Mars orbiter planned for later this year,an astronomy satellite and a second mission to the moon. It could perfect its GSLV,which is next scheduled to fly in the coming weeks,so that it can reliably carry two-tonne communication satellites to a GEO or a four-tonne space capsule to LEO — India’s space agency has conceptualised such space capsules to carry astronauts into space. It can conduct one or two developmental flights of the GSLV Mark 3,so that,after a few additional test flights,it is available for launching four-tonne communication satellites to a GEO,or a larger eight-tonne space capsule,similar in weight to China’s space capsules,to LEO. India can continue to launch a few satellites for international clients. And it will have about 50 satellites catering to its own economy — including several IRNSS satellites,15 to 20 satellites for earth observation,15 to 20 satellites for communications,and a few for meteorological missions and other purposes.

India’s space agency can also begin looking toward its missions for 2025-30. Most will involve replacing the satellites launched during this decade that will retire after about 10 years of operation. A small fraction may also explore new frontiers,such as alternative launch vehicles,a space plane that is presently in a prototype phase,and space capsules for a manned space programme. Such a mix of missions will enable the space agency to fulfil its original mandate of applying high-technology toward the advancement of the country’s economy,and they will affirm India’s status as one of the world’s major space powers.

The writer is associate professor at the University of Cincinnati,specialising in nuclear,missile and space technology policy,and the author of ‘Containing Missile Proliferation: Strategic Technology,Security Regimes and International Cooperation in Arms Control’

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