Opinion Compete or cooperate? India’s delicate dance with China

India has to deal with China at three levels: Global, regional, and bilateral. Globally, unlike during the Cold War, there are new centres of power, and world politics is more interdependent and multilayered, yet fluid, fragmented, and complex. There is a visible “weaponisation of interdependence” as well. The world is afflicted by competition, but there is also competition-driven cooperation (QUAD, for instance). The East has risen remarkably, while the West has been facing what Larry Summers calls “secular stagnation”. As Robyn Meredith observes, “The rise of India and China has caused the entire earth’s economic and political landscape to shift before our eyes.” The principal question is: Should India compete or cooperate with China at the global level?

Reconfiguring global supply chains away from China is an opportunity for India. But at the same time, Ratan Tata’s remarks cannot be ignored: “China is the factory of the world; India can be the knowledge centre of this region… If we orient ourselves to working together, we could be a formidable force of two nations.” This may be fine within the economic domain, but India should not hesitate to activate competitive mode to deal with China strategically. A leaf out of the United States’ handling of China under President Richard Nixon is instructive. As founding father of the modern Singaporean state Lee Kuan Yew admiringly quipped, “Nixon would engage, not contain, China, but he would also quietly set pieces in place for a fallback position, should China not play according to the rules as a good global citizen.”

At the regional level, India has to keep in mind two strategies that China has been adopting vis-à-vis India in South Asia: “Envelopment” and “Encirclement”. “Envelopment” essentially involves drafting India’s neighbours into economic dependence through China’s deep pockets. “Encirclement” is a kind of strengthened Chinese strategic presence in Tibet, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangladesh, Myanmar and in the Indian Ocean Island states, what is called the “String of Pearls” construct. The strategy includes a tight embrace of countries like Pakistan, dubbed as “Iron brothers”.

To counter these twin strategies of China, New Delhi has to invest more in its neighbourhood policy. The significance of neighbourhoods is pointed out by Waldo Tobler’s first law of geography: “Everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant things.” This is even more true of India and its neighbourhood on every parameter. Apart from governments, winning the hearts and minds of the people in the neighbourhood is crucial. More than the governments, the people of South Asian countries need India’s help. India is quick to reach out to its neighbours when in need, be it a coup attempt, an insurrection, relief during natural or man-made disasters, or an economic crisis. This is a natural geographical advantage — “good pangs of proximity”— that India has compared to China. India should not hesitate to highlight this aspect. “Good neighbourhood” has to be demonstrated rather than assumed.

Dealing with China bilaterally is the most crucial part, which can happen in three domains: Military, economic and diplomatic. Militarily, India has to measure up to China’s threat at both kinetic and non-kinetic fronts. Priorities should be defence modernisation, development of anti-access and area-denial capabilities, reinforcing the border infrastructure, augmenting cyber defence, and strengthening space capabilities.
Economically, according to a study by Research and Information System for Developing Countries (RIS), import substitution of 327 products (mobile phones, telecom equipment, cameras, solar panels, air-conditioners, penicillin to list a few) that accounted for nearly three-fourths of India’s imports from China, has to be managed.

Domestic production of quality goods has to be stepped up. It should be noted that China’s economic interests lie in not losing India — presently one of the largest markets in the world. This should be leveraged.

Diplomatically, Chinese national interests are best served by good relations and not by pushing India into the arms of the United States as “quasi-allies”. Realising this possibility, China has been proposing that the elephant dance with the dragon. In Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi’s own words, it means, “If China and India are united, one plus one will become eleven instead of two… Let us replace suspicion with trust, manage differences with dialogue and build a future with cooperation.”

The authors respectively are Professor and Doctoral Scholars, Department of International Studies, CHRIST (Deemed to be University), Bengaluru