Opinion In a shadowy fray

In fact,there is not one election,there are 288 elections. This is because there is not even a discernable regional pattern. Most Indians outside Maharashtra,including national party leaders and the national media,tend to perceive Maharashtra as a uni-lingual,uni-cultural and uni-socio-political state. The corporate circles and Bollywood look at the razzmatazz of Mumbai and mourn the decline and death of its hypnotic ebullience. Earlier the Shiv Sena and now the MNS are seen by the Hindi and English channels as rabble-rousers or Marathi fascists. The prejudiced shadow of this perception falls on the general Marathi ethos — and the politics of Maharashtra,in their eyes,becomes a shadow-play.

To get a clear picture,it is necessary to erase the shadow. Though,as part of the linguistic state policy,Maharashtra was carved out on the basis of Marathi-speaking communities,in reality the people in Vidarbha are not enamoured of the Marathi linguistic identity,nor is most of Marathwada. The issue of the so-called migrants’ invasion does not appeal to them.

Vidarbha (with 62 assembly seats) has a closer socio-ethnic link with the Hindi-speaking Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Marathwada (48 assembly seats) was part of the Nizam state,was liberated in 1948,and did not get integrated with India in 1947. Even in Solapur (the constituency of Sushil Kumar Shinde) one-third of the population speaks Telugu,one-third Kannada and one-third Marathi. Almost all Marathi-speaking people in that area have a substantial acquaintance with those two languages and even intonations. In these areas,neither Balasaheb,nor Uddhav nor Raj has any identitarian appeal.

Vidarbha was once the impenetrable bastion of the Congress. Almost till 1985. From 1989 the saffron wave began to spread in this region,and with the Rath Yatra,it got consolidated. Yet it was not all over for the Congress,but there was a dent. During this period the BJP and Sena formed an alliance. Despite Nagpur being the headquarters of the RSS,the Jan Sangh or the BJP had not really “conquered” the Vidarbha region. In the 1990 assembly election,the Sena-BJP alliance made its first powerful attack on the Congress. The alliance further spread its tentacles with the Hindutva campaign.

The destruction of the Babri Masjid in 1992 and the vicious riots in Mumbai in 1993 had inflamed the political atmosphere — and against that backdrop,the saffron front came to power in 1995.

It was during this period that the Congress was rapidly vacating political space to a variety of anti-Congress forces. Maharashtra had never succumbed to the politics of anti-Congressism,even in the mid-’60s or ’70s. Even in 1977,when the Janata Party came to power and the Congress was split,the 1978 elections saw the alliance of Congress-R (Reddy) and Congress-I (Indira) in power. Vasantdada Patil (of the Congress-R) became the chief minister and Nasikrao Tirpude (Congress-I) the deputy chief minister.

It was only after Sharad Pawar broke that alliance to form the so-called PDF (Progressive Democratic Front) that the traditional anti-Congress and anti-Indira forces came together. In that PDF,there were the Sanghites,Socialists and Pawar followers (his party was named then the Congress-S).

Since then,the Maharashtra polity fractured and still has not recovered. Pawar returned to the Congress in 1986,after Indira Gandhi died and Rajiv was in full command of the party and the government. Little did he anticipate that the Rajiv government would be defeated in 1989. Indeed,if he had anticipated that possibility,he would have remained in the PDF,which later joined V.P. Singh’s National Front.

It is important to recognise it is amidst this ideological-political vacuum that the politics of identity and violence has taken root in Maharashtra. The so-called alliance of the Congress and NCP is phoney. The two parties are virtual enemies of each other in the field and would court the Shiv Sena or MNS whenever and wherever they feel it has utilitarian value.

In 1999,the two parties fought against each other and formed an alliance only after the results,ostensibly to keep the “communal forces” away. Nobody believes that in Mumbai or elsewhere in Maharashtra. Both parties have done nothing to promote the idea of secularism,liberalism,cosmopolitanism and tolerance. Further,the performance of the government in 1999-2004 and 2004-2009 is so pathetic that even the traditional supporters of the Congress are demoralised or disgusted. In elections,voters tend to respond to performance,overall governance and political and ideological positions. With absolutely nothing to stand on,and the fratricidal skulduggery in both the Congresses,the mood is that of cynicism,indifference and withdrawal. The vast liberal constituency across the state always supported Congress,particularly when there was a major threat of communalism and casteism. (In 1995,those forces won because of the Babri Masjid disaster.) Now that middle-roader,the liberal voter,is fed up with the incumbents.

It is in this space that Raj has thrown down his gauntlet. He has cracked the saffron mirror,by not supporting Hindutva nor joining hands with SS. No wonder,he is drawing support from the Dalit and Muslim Marathi youth as well as from the new voters in the age group of 18 to 30 and also women in all age groups. In fact,he is not splitting only the Sena-BJP vote,but also slicing away the Congress vote and creating a new vote bank. His performance should be measured not in the number of seats he wins but the votes he is able to attract.

If the Congress-NCP are deluding themselves that the Raj factor will come to their rescue,they are in a fool’s paradise,because he is not only taking the anti-Congress vote but also eroding the Congress base. That is how,in the absence of any issue,the Marathi identity has become a focal campaign point and Raj has acquired a celebrity-notoriety status.

The writer is editor of ‘Loksatta’ kumar.ketkar@expressindia.com