Opinion Hemmed in from all sides

Despite the best intentions and investment in time,resources and equipment,the US has not got a hold either on the ground or at the policy level. Top echelons in the Obama administration seem unclear on the road ahead but it is evident that the US is working on an exit strategy. The lack of clarity is on the path to drawdown of troops and the timeline for the drawdown. But as and when the US does withdraw the bulk of its forces,with circumstances remaining much the same as they are today,where would this leave Afghanistan,Pakistan,and indeed India? While it is impossible to make any accurate forecast,several scenarios are possible.

The first is the status quo,with President Karzai,like Najibullah before him,muddling along for some time. On the other hand,given his lackadaisical administration,if Karzai loses the loyalty of the Afghan National Army his regime will give way. The hawks in the form of the Ismail Khans,the Dostums and the Fahim Khans will strike. Each possible successor is worse than the other. Second,there is a distinct possibility of Kabul falling to the Taliban,reverting Afghanistan to the pre-9/11 period. This poses a further ethnic problem for the country,with the Tajiks,Uzbeks and Hazaras offering resistance and throwing the country into a fierce civil war. But a truly nightmarish scenario is the emergence of a fundamentalist Islamic state comprising the Pashtun territories of southern Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan. This could be disastrous for Pakistan. The Pakistan army contains some who sympathise with fundamentalist Islam,and any ideological split within its officer class is bound to put heavy pressure on the federal government — which would indeed destabilise an already fragile Pakistan. Moreover,a premature US pullout will be viewed as a victory for the mujahideen giving a fillip to Islamic radical movements across the globe.

So to the question: where would all this leave India? The Afghans have always had a feeling of great warmth towards India and Indians. And they have no love lost for the Pakistanis,owing to Pakistan’s support and sustenance to the Taliban. Let us never forget that the average Afghan hated the Taliban for their rigid laws,views and brutality. But now,despite India having spent millions of dollars in developing roads,power generation and supply lines,technical assistance of various kinds,its geographical disconnect with Afghanistan,Pakistan’s geographical proximity and the latter’s ability to sustain terror groups in its territories,ironically puts Pakistan in pole position vis-a-vis the US and its challenge to organised terror. The truth is that Pakistanis have a deep distrust for the Americans. Despite this,the US is in a bind and continues to provide arms and monies to the Pakistan government. The US will continue with this process not just to equip and prop up Pakistan but with the understanding that if its own position in Pakistan weakens,the space is most likely to be taken by China,which has consistently supported Pakistan and eyes the Gwadar port as its exit point to the warm waters of the Arabian Sea. It is also a fact that India cannot pull out a rabbit from its hat that can make the US change its stand.

The only real choice left before India is to work with the United States to manage governance issues in Afghanistan,in the hope that with better governance,a natural resistance will develop for the re-emergence of a Taliban-type government. As of now,this is not a scenario one can bet on.

The writer is vice-chancellor of the Jamia Millia Islamia,New Delhi