Opinion End of the road?

The difference between Jayalalithaa and Vaiko was over the number of seats. The MDMK climbed down from its initial demand of 35 to 21,but the AIADMK was willing to offer no more than 12 seats. In Tamil Nadu politics,where the swing of a percentage or two can make a difference between winning and losing,the outcome depends not only on the popularity of the main Dravida parties but also on the line-up of smaller outfits backing the rival formations. Some believe that Vaiko’s alienation could be a setback for the AIADMK. After all,his party has all along garnered 4-5 per cent of the total votes polled.

But Vaiko’s damage potential hinges on whether his party cadre heeds his advice to stay away from the assembly polls. Vaiko will not be able to stop his district leaders and their followers from switching to either of the two main political formations. A larger number is expected to join forces with the AIADMK. Vaiko’s quixotic gesture of renunciation may end up harming his own party most of all.

Jayalalithaa was shrewd enough to realise that it was more important to accommodate actor Vijayakanth,whose political star is on the rise,than Vaiko whose influence is waning. In the 2009 parliamentary poll,the MDMK contested four seats and won only one. Vaiko himself lost from Virudhunagar seat. In the 2006 assembly poll,the MDMK won only six of the 35 seats it contested in an alliance with Jayalalithaa. Vijayakanth,who made his political debut in the 2006 assembly elections on his own by forming the DMDK,may have secured only one assembly seat,but got an impressive 8 per cent vote share. In the parliamentary elections,his vote share went up to 10 per cent. In both polls,he appears to have eaten into the AIADMK’s vote bank. Vijayakanth,a fresh face in the state’s political scene,has evoked much enthusiasm among the youth as well.

When Vaiko launched the MDMK in 1994,after being evicted from the DMK for protesting against M. Karunanidhi elevating son Stalin as his political heir,he too was a youth icon. He had a clean,charismatic image and was a great orator who focused on issues seen to be relevant to the state. He argued against the oppression of Tamils by the Sri Lankan government,while also sympathising with the Tamil Tigers and its leader V. Prabhakaran. But over the years he frittered away much goodwill because of his impetuousness.

Curiously,while Vaiko has had rocky relations with state-level leaders,he’s enjoyed extremely good relations with prime ministers,from Rajiv Gandhi to Manmohan Singh. In fact,he did not push for a minister’s post for himself at the Centre during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s tenure,though he was a favourite and an important member of the NDA. He not only sacrificed his own interests,but he also failed to meet the expectations of his key supporters,several of whom have deserted him over the years. More than once,Vaiko has impulsively walked out of an alliance without weighing the consequences. After pulling out of the AIADMK alliance,Vaiko left to immerse the ashes of Prabhakaran’s mother.

His party could turn out to be yet another lost cause. It would continue to cling to the self-respect slogan,first coined by Periyar and Annadurai,and would aggressively champion the rights of Sri Lankan Tamils,the MDMK resolution said. However,by deciding to boycott the coming poll,the MDMK is in serious danger of jeopardising its future.