Opinion Elections 2024: Is Modi’s invincibility greater than Nehru, Indira Gandhi at their height?
The Opposition has to come up with creative ways to show what they believe is the extent of their support. They have not done so till now
Modi is not the first Indian leader to have a halo of electoral invincibility. (PTI)
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Electoral battles are, first of all, fought in the mind. It is there that almost all are won or lost. If a political leader or party acquires an aura of invincibility then demoralisation sets in the others, leading to the latter’s inevitable defeat. Hence, it is essential that the combatant, who is on the back foot, does not believe that the other is unbeatable. Thereafter he has to ensure that his supporters and the electorate do not consider that the election is over before it has begun. These propositions are relevant for the coming election, set to kick off on April 19, because Prime Minister Narendra Modi has succeeded in acquiring a halo of invincibility.
The Opposition has not undertaken any effective measure, as yet, to diminish Modi’s halo despite the valid expectation that notwithstanding all his efforts, he will not do well in the southern states. But it is not there that this election will be decided. Its fate will depend largely on Modi’s performance in the Hindi heartland and in the western states. The INDIA group, led by the Congress, is seeking to take on Modi in these regions. Its supporters say that there is great discontent in the rural areas, which will manifest itself at the polls. They also assert, with justification, that neither the mainstream nor social media is willing to adequately cover the Opposition’s activities. Therefore, the traction it is acquiring is not becoming visible. Election campaigns require the oxygen of publicity and its denial is an electoral weapon in itself. The Opposition has to come up with creative ways to show what they believe is the extent of their support. They have not done so till now. Without that, Modi’s halo will not go away.
Modi is not the first Indian leader to have a halo of electoral invincibility. Before him, India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru had one. Nehru’s halo never faded and the Congress that he led easily won the first three national elections. Indira Gandhi’s case was different from her father’s. Her first tenure (1966-77) saw ups and downs. She imposed an internal Emergency in June 1975. When she declared elections in January 1977, no one expected that she would lose. The Opposition leaders had been in prison since June 1975. There was a measure of underground resistance to the Emergency but it was not openly palpable. There was great popular resentment to the sterilisation programme among all sections of people and the bureaucracy too but there was no ostensible indication that it was of such magnitude as to make for Indira Gandhi’s electoral defeat.
In this situation of gloom for the Opposition, a dramatic act cracked what was till then the halo of invincibility around Indira Gandhi. The veteran Congress leader Babu Jagjivan Ram left the party in February 1977 along with some other influential party persons like Hemvati Nandan Bahuguna and Nandini Satpathy. That created a sensation in the country and Indira Gandhi’s halo of invincibility was broken. It did not matter that the Opposition did not have an electoral machine to match that of the Congress because the popular upsurge in the Hindi heartland became so strong against Indira Gandhi and her son Sanjay that they themselves lost their seats. Significantly, the officialdom in the northern states, sensing that the wind had changed, was no longer willing to show any favours to the Congress.
The Bofors case and V P Singh’s revolt against Rajiv Gandhi opened up the 1989 elections even though Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi had won over 400 Lok Sabha seats in the 1984 elections. He had also alienated Hindu sentiment because of his approach in the Shah Bano case. While the Congress emerged as the single-largest party it lost over 200 seats and Rajiv did not stake his claim to form the government.
In the coming elections, there is nothing to indicate, at present, the possibility of a repeat of the 1977 or 1989 examples. Modi is riding high and is, by far, the foremost leader in the country. Almost all media commentary in India is focusing only on whether he will be able to better his 2019 record. He has himself set the high goal of winning 370 seats and is energetically going about the country to come as close to the target as possible. The BJP electoral machine is well oiled and the missteps of the Modi government such as the initial handling of the Covid pandemic or growing economic disparities are not becoming election issues. Instead, Modi has diverted popular attention in the Hindi heartland and the western states on the restoration of national pride through doing away with the vestiges of a thousand years of slavery. The construction of the Ram Mandir, and even the G20 presidency which stressed the projection of India’s ancient heritage are part of this narrative. These are essentially Hindu projects but the Opposition has not called them so for it simply does not know how to handle Modi’s narrative. Consequently, it is being widely accepted nationally and internationally too that no person or organisation is capable of stopping the Modi juggernaut.
Rahul Gandhi is no longer called a “pappu”. His first Bharat Jodo Yatra deprived the ruling dispensation of using that sobriquet for none of its leaders could emulate that feat. However, Rahul and the INDIA’s message that Modi has failed to address issues impacting people’s lives do not seem to have created the necessary buzz, despite his current travels, to dent Modi’s halo. Hence, as of now, the Opposition seems nowhere close to what should be its first objective — to create the feeling that Modi can be defeated. Unless it does so, in the very limited time left, this election is already over.
The writer is a former diplomat
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