Opinion Dances with bears
It was a short visit just 22 hours long but it packed quite a punch. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putins trip to New Delhi ended up in more...
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It was a short visit just 22 hours long but it packed quite a punch. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putins trip to New Delhi ended up in more than a dozen agreements worth about $10 billion being signed between the two states. India and Russia not only renewed their age-old partnership but tried to give a new dynamism to a relationship that many in both countries argue has been drifting for some years now. The rise of China is the new reality that both are trying to come to grips with; this will shape future ties.
After the Cold War,both India and Russia struggled for several years to define their relations with other global players. The rules of international politics were in a state of flux and the terms of economic interaction between nations were being reset. As India rose in the global inter-state hierarchy,many in India continued to rely on Russia for railing against the unipolar world order. The most visible manifestation of this tendency was an attempt to carve a Russia-China-India strategic triangle. The proposal originally came from then Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov during his visit to India in 1998; he argued such an arrangement would be a force for greater regional and international stability. But as every state in the triangle needed the US to further its own interests,this project could not move beyond platitudinous rhetoric.
And now with China emerging as the most likely challenger of a US that might be close to decline,Russia and India are struggling with the implications of a possible Chinese hegemony over the Asian strategic landscape. It is this geopolitical imperative that is forcing Delhi and Moscow to ramp up their partnership hence the rapidity with which the two states are trying to revise their relationship.
Defence,of course,remains central to Indo-Russian relations. During Putins trip,significant defence deals were signed that included a new $2.34 billion contract for the refit of the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier; a $1.2 billion deal to procure 29 additional MiG 29-K naval fighter aircraft; and an agreement for an additional 40 Su-30MKI fighters for the Indian Air Force. Though there is disquiet among the Indian armed forces about the Russian behaviour over Gorshkov,it is also clear that Russia is the only state that is willing to share technology at the strategic level of aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines with India. And as Putin reminded his Indian audience,Russia is probably the only major global power that has not sold defence technology to Pakistan. Civilian nuclear energy cooperation also gathered momentum with a comprehensive nuclear deal between India and Russia and a pact to build two power plants in Tamil Nadu. Russia is already constructing four nuclear reactors in India and this nuclear pact will lead to more than a dozen Russian nuclear power plants in India.
The most challenging aspect of Indo-Russian relations today is,perhaps,the upgrading of bilateral economic and trade relations. Bilateral trade stands at about $8 billion after years of persistent decline; it has only recently picked up. Putin has promised greater access to Indian investment in high-tech sectors where Russia needs help.
Infotech and finance lead the sectors of interest for Indian companies in Russia aside from greater access to Russian oil and natural gas,the investment in the Sakhalin projects being just the beginning.
Most significant in the regional context was Putins assertion that the security situation in Afghanistan did impact the security of India and Russia. The two states have planned to cooperate more closely in future on Afghanistan. This comes at a time when Indian disenchantment with the West on Af-Pak is at an all-time high,and it is looking at alternative policies to secure its interests. The US,which has actively discouraged India from assuming a higher profile in Afghanistan for fear of offending Pakistan,has simultaneously failed to get Pakistan to take Indian concerns more seriously. More damagingly,the Obama administration has systematically ignored India in crafting its Af-Pak policy. This has led to a rapid deterioration in the Indian security environment with New Delhi having little or no strategic space to manoeuvre. To preserve its interests in such a strategic milieu,India is re-assessing its options. Reaching out to Moscow is just the first step.
There are few examples of a relationship between countries that has been as stable as the one between India and Russia. Despite the momentous changes in the international environment since 1992,there remains a continued convergence of interests. The challenge for the two now is to provide a new direction to their relationship at a time when the rise of China threatens to up-end the regional and global balance of power.
The writer teaches at Kings College,London
express@expressindia.com
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