Opinion Calm in the time of recession
Obama is cool and distant,yes. But even super-empathiser Clinton couldnt win his party their midterms
My homework for an hour-long interview with President Obama last week began with reviews of his earlier speeches and interviews,and conversations with economists and political operatives. It ended around a dinner table.
Thats where,over salad and swordfish,former aides to another Democratic president,Bill Clinton,explored principal questions hanging over the coming midterm elections. How can Obama do better at defending his record and his partys candidates from the wrath of an unhappy electorate? Why doesnt he receive more credit for winning passage of expanded health care coverage,new financial regulations and an economic stimulus package that many independent economists say helped end the Great Recession? Why cant he get his message out?
Republicans argue that its because Obama has expanded the size of government and swelled federal deficits,with little to show for it,in the face of public resistance. But Democrats,who share the presidents philosophy,look for other explanations.
The former Clinton aides,like many pundits,turned to Obamas cool,cerebral public style. Emotional connection was an aspect of leadership at which Clinton,for better or worse,excelled. If only Obama could more effectively demonstrate empathy,they argued,he might be able to convince the supporters he thrilled in 2008 that hes still on their side. That observation has gained wide acceptance in Washington. Obama may have played like a rock star in the campaign arenas of 2008,according to this view,but he displays a Spock-like emotional aridity in more intimate settings.
In reality,however,a look back at previous midterm elections,especially during economic weakness,suggests that dollars and cents matter far more than hugs or lip-biting. At last weeks hour-long town hall on CNBC,which I moderated,Obama declined to offer any Oprah-style emotional revelation when I asked whether his unusual background as a biracial child who spent part of his youth overseas,then attended Ivy League schools made it harder to connect with average Americans.
Perhaps that was a moment missed,but history offers scant evidence to think so. Despite President Dwight D. Eisenhowers celebrated World War II record,voters didnt like Ike enough to keep his fellow Republicans from losing 48 House seats amid the 1958 recession. For all his talents,Clinton watched his party lose control of both the House and Senate in the 1994 midterm election,in which economic weakness was one of many factors. We have a controlled experiment, observed Stan Greenberg,one of Clintons pollsters,downplaying the significance of Obamas empathic skills. Clearly Bill Clinton had the ability to connect emotionally. He got slaughtered in 1994.
Moreover,the unemployment rate Clinton faced then never got higher than 6.6 per cent nowhere near the 9.6 per cent rate Obama faces today. Late last year,notwithstanding his stimulus programme,unemployment hit 10 per cent for the first time since the 1982 recession,during Ronald Reagans presidency. After studying their predecessors in similar circumstances,aides to Obama have come to see Reagans challenging midterm campaign that year as something of a model. This one feels more like 1982 than 1994, said Daniel Pfeiffer,the White House communications director.
Reagan,like Obama,had assumed immense economic challenges after succeeding a deeply unpopular president of the other party. After persuading Congress to cut tax rates and spending, Reagan beseeched voters to stay the course, and warned against a return to the policies of tax-and-spend Congressional Democrats. He held Republican losses to 26 House seats a level that,if repeated this year,would allow Democrats to retain control of the chamber.
Its easy to forget how politically weak Reagan appeared for much of that year. According to Gallup,Obamas current mid-40s approval ratings are comparable to or slightly higher than Reagans at a similar point in 1982 (as well as Clintons in 1994).
While the raucous and frenetic quality of the Information Age almost certainly hinders Obama more than his demeanour,the town hall ended up carrying an emotional wallop anyway. But it didnt come from my questions or Obamas answers. Instead,it came from an audience member,Velma Hart,a black Obama supporter who works at a service organisation for military veterans.
Im exhausted exhausted of defending you,defending your administration, Hart said,looking straight at the president. Ive been told that I voted for a man who said he was going to change things in a meaningful way for the middle class. Im one of those people and Im waiting,sir. Her riveting statement struck some observers as an embarrassing public relations setback for Obama. Jon Stewart called Hart an Obama-sapping machine.
White House aides hope that the exchange will have a different effect: to demonstrate that Obama isnt isolated inside the presidential bubble, deaf to the suffering a weak economy has engendered. As it happens,that view of the hours emotional impact was endorsed by the master of the genre.
I may be one of the few people that think its not bad that that lady said she was getting tired of defending him, Clinton told Politico. He needs to hear it.
-John Harwood
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