Opinion Back to the re-drawing board

Ahead of the 2012 assembly elections,the Congress,compared to the BJP struggling to conceal a split apparently over Modi,looks more united. However,this time,it will be real issues rather than rhetoric that are likely to sway the votes,as this will be the first election fought in the newly delimited constituencies. Both the BJP and the Congress,therefore,are on a “back-to-basics” exercise,since many constituencies considered bastions,have disappeared.

The BJP has already done a micro analysis of each booth on a scale of most-to-least favourable. The analysis compared the 2007 assembly elections with the 2009 general elections,which were fought after the new delimitation. Feelers from the party indicate that the confidence of the earlier two Modi-led polls is clearly missing. And the fight looks more vicious after former CM Keshubhai Patel began the anti-Modi campaign and pracharak-turned-politician Sanjay Joshi reportedly quit the BJP apparently because of Modi.

Ahmedabad-based sociologist Achyut Yagnik says,“After the 2006 delimitation,at least 41 of the old 182 constituencies,many of them represented by prominent BJP ministers,have completely disappeared and at least 18 have either got reserved or de-reserved.”

Both the Congress and the BJP are mobilising castes; even Modi,who is an OBC but was never projected as a caste leader,is wooing different communities. The powerful Patidar community,which could swing at least 20 per cent of seats,especially in Saurashtra,stands split as pro- or anti-Modi. Considered influential and progressive in Gujarat,the Patidars are divided as Leuva and Kadva (Patels) and have done independent shows of strength in the last few months,giving Keshubhai a firm Leuva Patel platform to attack Modi. Although Patel might not have influence outside Saurashtra,the recent case against him for making inflammatory speeches indicates a nervousness in the Modi camp.

Notwithstanding the churn in the BJP,the Congress’s history of factionalism,and the latest caste manoeuvres,Modi remains the key force of the election,trying hard to reboot. Sources say,as head of a wealthy state like Gujarat with industry on his side,he is the “cash cow” for the party and probably even for the RSS.

This gave him the confidence to launch the BJP’s money-collection drive “Dhan Sangraha” for the 2012 polls.

The Election Commission is also quietly working to ensure a clean voting process. The bypoll to the Mansa assembly seat in Gandhinagar in March is a case in point. Besides a victory for the Congress and a big embarrassment for the BJP,which lost by 8,000 votes,this bypoll was a test case for the EC which found Rs 94 lakh in a car,aborting a probable bribery attempt. The Mansa bypoll also saw a 75 per cent turnout,a factor that could impact outcomes even in the assembly elections in December.

Narendra Modi has set a target of winning at least 151 of the 182 assembly seats this time,as he faces his fourth elections as chief minister in Gujarat,amid speculation about his fighting for the country’s top job in 2014. As Gujarat CM,he made international headlines,whether it was the massacres of 2002 or branding Gujarat as the Mecca of business 10 years later. Now he wants to beat the longest-reigning former Congress CM,Madhavsinh Solanki,who had won 149 of 182 seats in 1985,uniting the non-Patels under the KHAM (Kshatriya-Harijan-Adivasi-Muslim) umbrella.

Going by the assembly constituent results of the 2009 parliamentary elections,fought on the new boundary demarcations,the BJP seems to have an advantage in 107 seats,which could upset Modi’s plans. Moreover,the Congress,pepped up by the Mansa win,is also working hard to regain ground.

In 2002,after the Godhra carnage-led riots,the BJP won 127 seats and the Congress 50. In 2007,the BJP’s score dropped to 117; it added up to 122 seats over five by-elections,till Mansa happened.

So far,the Supreme Court-appointed SIT has given Modi a clean chit in the 2002 riots,Modi has undertaken 36 fasts under the Sadbhavana Mission,he has featured on the cover of Time,even as he prepares for the school enrolment drive for rural girls. As editorials in the BJP’s and RSS’s mouthpieces differ on their views on Modi,the irony is that Modi,who began as a party organiser,might end up finishing the party in the BJP,as CM. Party insiders say that Modi’s charisma may not last long or be strong enough to ride the BJP to its ambitious target,although it could get him a fourth term as chief minister.

Urban voters,who constitute nearly a fifth of Gujarat’s votes,remain in awe of Modi,while the Congress rues the inaccessibility of this segment to itself. Even if the UPA’s JNNURM has changed the cities of Gujarat,the Congress has not been able to market this to its advantage — not like Modi,who shows off the Ahmedabad BRTS,a JNNURM project.

However,it is also clear

that the SIT clean chit and the court’s riot verdicts,which have so far seen some 60 Patels go to jail for the Sardarpura and Ode massacres,are likely to remain non-events as far as the assembly elections are concerned.

leena.misra@expressindia.com