Opinion ‘Announcing a deadline in Afghanistan was catastrophic — as the Taliban say,you may have the watches,but we have the time’

Watching elections in Egypt,it looks to be in an early stage. Two-thirds of the vote is going to either the Muslim Brotherhood or the Salafists. That’s a matter of concern. I think what can happen in the long run is that they won’t be able to build effective governments. We are in for a challenge that will go on for a long time.

Do you have similar thoughts on Syria?

I think the regime there will go down…from the American point of view,it is better to give it a push. Any regime that has to kill 40 to 50 people every week to keep itself where it is,is not going to last a long time.

Has the Arab spring changed your views on Iran?

It will be a very good thing if the Syrian regime goes down. Syria is their main ally,the only ally really in the Arab world. It is clear that large masses of Iranian people do not like this regime and would like to get rid of it. It is also clear that this regime is going to be utterly ruthless while repressing them. And they are advising the Syrians on how to do this. So the Syrian regime going down puts pressure on the Iranian regime. These pressures are cumulative… and at some point,regimes crack apart — not just because of pressures from the population,but splits within the regime.

Do you think US military action is an option?

I will be very careful about recommending military action to the Obama administration,because I am not sure whether they will follow through on it.

Would it be the same if there was a Republican administration?

It depends on the circumstances. And for sure,I will not take military action off the table. Nobody thinks that’s a good option but the problem with Iran is that it is very hard to see the good options. The best option will be if the regime goes under. But that doesn’t seem to be happening in the short-term. The other three options will be — Israel attacks them,we attack them,and that regime’s nuclear weapons. Those are all awful possibilities. The question then is,which is the least awful? And when it comes to making policy,people rarely put it that way. But they find an awful possibility and then try to convince themselves they are not so bad.

How difficult is the situation in Pakistan?

It’s pretty bad. One of the main problems in the US-Pakistan relationship is that it has ups and downs. But it’s a downward sloping sine curve. You never recover to the same level you were before,and the next low is lower than the previous low. And the current administration has made some things worse by giving the impression to Pakistan and Afghans that we are out of Afghanistan.

Was it prudent to give a deadline?

You never give a deadline. There is an old line that the Taliban say,“You may have the watches,but we have the time”. In my view,that was catastrophic. The other mistake,we are making,is I am not in favour of negotiations with the Taliban. We have seen this before. You conduct negotiations with the superpower patron and you delegitimise the government in Kabul. Why would you want to do that? I think the Obama administration handled President Karzai terribly. He is not an easy guy,but if you are king of Kabul,you won’t be an easy guy yourself. He is in a very difficult situation. And that relationship started off bad,because the Obama campaign was very critical of Karzai.

How challenging is it for the US to deal with China?

It is a challenge for us,but more of a challenge for China’s neighbours. China doesn’t claim a piece of the US,but a piece of India. The Chinese are worried about American warships in their backyard. I am not worried about Chinese warships in my backyard.

They are holding so many of your dollars?

There’s a saying US that if you owe your bank 10,000 dollars,you have a problem; and if you owe your bank 10 million dollars,the bank has a problem. So,if we have a problem,they have a problem. It is going to be a mixture of cooperation,trade,exchange and also tension,and some great power manoeuvres. And we have to be subtle.

But what you are seeing in the way the US is responding to the situation now is — firstly,there is a lot of pull from the region,from the Vietnamese,from the Japanese,from the Australians,from you. Anybody you talk to in this region wants US presence. I am yet to hear anybody in East Asia,Southeast Asia or South Asia say that we should not be around,we make life difficult… They say,we want you to be around the way we want it.

Last question — is American influence waning?

There is an economic crisis,yes. Wwe have our challenges,yes. I am a pessimist about most things in the short- and mid-term,but in the long-term,I am optimistic about the US. And I would remind everybody that anybody who’s betting against the US goes broke.