Opinion After the victory,the realignment

The prospect of shared power in a grand coalition with the conservatives is one that few Social Democrats relish,for this is likely to damage their long-term credibility as a real alternative to the freshly anointed Merkel. Nor are fresh elections necessarily a better alternative for them,for this will quite likely give her an absolute majority. So,even as the search is on for coalition partners,faute de mieux,a CDU-SPD grand coalition is the most likely outcome.

Like India,Germany is a federal state with a multi-party system,with two major parties,the CDU and the SPD,and a motley crew of smaller ones,including the Green Party,the Linke (the Left) and the Alternative for Germany (AfD),a eurosceptic movement turned into a party,and the CSU (the CDU’s sister party based in Bavaria). However,unlike India,the electoral system is based on proportional representation,and parties that do not manage to get at least 5 per cent of the vote are not allocated any seats at all. The polls on Sunday dealt a fatal blow to the liberals of the Free Democratic Party (FDP) which,having lost many voters to the AfD,has failed to meet the 5 per cent threshold. As such,while Merkel has won a great personal victory,her party will have to look for a new partner,which,given the current constellation of parties,is most likely to be the SPD.

Two leading contenders for power forming a ruling coalition in peacetime would be inconceivable in the British or Indian context,but such is the emphasis on stability in the politics of postwar Germany that a grand coalition consisting of adversaries is not considered an abnormal outcome. Steinbrück,the SPD leader,was,as a matter of fact,a successful finance minister in the first grand coalition government (2005-09) led by Merkel as chancellor.

If this grand coalition forms,there is likely to be a leftwards shift in terms of domestic policy compared to the previous government. Germany will most likely continue its approach on the EU (short-term austerity instead of long-term structural reforms) and refocus its attention on domestic issues like reforming the energy sector,the nuclear plant phase-out,renewable energy,increasing labour supply and addressing its immigration policy. Merkel has handled the global economic crisis with great dexterity,balancing stability and austerity with social justice. Thus,for example,during the last days before the elections,she was able to speak almost exclusively on social issues and sustainable development — a theme normally the domain of centre-left or ecological parties.

The elections drew great attention all over Europe due to Germany’s leading position in the EU as its largest economy,with 30 per cent of the eurozone’s GDP output,and the biggest contributor to the bailouts of weaker economies like Greece. Outside the eurozone,the German elections were followed with great interest in China as well,Germany being China’s most important partner in Europe. The overall style of the campaign,compared to the noise and fury of Indian or American elections,was “dull and lame”,to quote the German magazine Der Spiegel. Besides the rare lighter moments,the electoral campaign ran along traditional lines,with hundreds of rallies and thousands of household visits. These conventional methods were supplemented by digital mass media. To cap it all,towards the end of the campaign period came an American-style television duel with Merkel and Steinbrück grandstanding in front of an invited audience,watched by the bulk of the German population. When the time came to express their votes,German voters clearly knew what each party stood for.

An important outcome was the rapid emergence of the AfD,with its single-minded commitment to the abolition of the euro,similar to the Anna Hazare anti-corruption movement that has now turned into the Aam Aadmi Party in India. As a “spoiler”,it ruined the FDP’s chances of remaining part of the ruling coalition and brought issues like the abolition of the euro,immigration and the cost of subsidies to weaker economies to mainstream politics. But the analogy stops there. The antics of small parties in Germany that do not gain seats are confined to influencing policy. Unlike India,this does not lead to governmental instability. Electoral democracy in Germany is run without the benefit of the deployment of troops,corruption,communal hatred or terror. Leaders face their electors directly — and not through party spokesmen — in a manner that is transparent and credible. This is something India’s leaders and voters could take notice of.

The writer is professor of political science at the South Asia Institute of Heidelberg University,Germany