Opinion After the Pharaoh
Egypt votes,positioning itself for a post-Mubarak politics
The year was 2005. Staring at me from every nook and cranny was one face: that of Hosni Mubarak.
Cruising through Cairo,whether along its leafy boulevards or past its downtrodden neighbourhood of Imbaba,the constant was his face,looking down from giant billboards,plastered on to crumbling façades. Mubarak,for the first time in the 24 years he had ruled Egypt,had allowed for opposition to his presidency,running against 9 other candidates. The Mubarak circus,though,was all-encompassing. It was then that I first heard what Egyptians called their longest-serving president: Pharaoh.
Suffice to say,despite the competition,Mubarak came out on top. His grip on power was absolute; his love for it,unyielding.
On Sunday Egyptians went to the ballot again,for parliamentary elections. Mubarak had chosen to appease the voters earlier. He had ushered in a veneer of political reform,for example: in what the state-run media hailed as a progressive step,he followed through on his presidential pledge and set aside 64 seats,at a minimum,for women.
But that was not all the control-freakish Mubarak did. There was also the matter of the March 2007 amendment to the Egyptian constitution that gave his party the National Democratic Party (NDP) an edge over others. Through the amendment he transferred parliamentary election oversight from the judiciary to an independent,neutral commission. But chosen from the heavily NDP-dominated parliament,and so seven out of 11 commissioners are Mubaraks men.
The opposition then and now cries foul. Dozens of opposition candidates from the Muslim Brotherhood were prevented from running; thousands have been arrested under the controversial emergency law active for three decades! Mubarak has already enacted an official ban on the party,and its candidates run as independents. They now claim that the elections outcome is predetermined: a definite victory for Mubaraks party.
In the 2005 parliamentary elections when farmers and grocers celebrated the Muslim Brotherhood surprised nearly everyone. Its candidates swept the votes and took 20 per cent of the seats. But the lead-up to this years elections saw divisions amongst parties. The Brotherhoods ranks debated whether they should even bother to stand. And the one man that many Egyptians saw as a challenger,Mohammed ElBaradei,disappointed.
Many saw the Nobel-winning former chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency as their knight on a white horse as he pushed for political reform. But his campaign fizzled out; his party,the National Association for Change,boycotted the elections. He pressed his allies in the Muslim Brotherhood,to join the boycott but they left ElBaradei out in the cold. They knew that,in Egypt,popular anger over election fraud has catalysed a more confrontational and powerful opposition,a lesson the Armani suited-Western influenced Baradei will likely soon learn.
Analysts now predict an 80 per cent NDP victory. The NDP,in order to maximise seats,is running more than one candidate: there are 780 NDP candidates running for 508 seats. The figures,while overwhelming,are incidental: whats really at stake here is next years presidential elections.
These parliamentary elections are but a mere dress rehearsal. And the question on everyones lips is: will the 82-year old Mubarak,who is rumoured to be in poor health,seek a sixth term?
Should the Pharaoh bow out there may well arise a divide in his party. Though Mubarak has not named a successor,his youngest son Gamal Mubarak is increasingly active in the political sphere. He was appointed general-secretary of the NDPs policy committee in 2002,and is frequently in Washington.
But he brings with him a new Egypt,an Egypt the NDPs old guard (sombre men in uniform) are yet to come to terms with. A former investment banker,his savvy business czars have often clashed with the old guard. Should Hosni Mubarak not run,a divide within the party is possible,say Egypt specialists at the Council for Foreign Relations.
And an NDP entrenched in power is unlikely to let go. Which is where the contours of its parliamentary victory matter. If Mubarak bows out,will his party allow a civilian at the helm? And will the parliament cooperate in such a scenario?
It is odd for anyone,not just for the NDP,to imagine an Egypt without a military man at the helm. From the thunderous Gamal Abdel Nasser coup that installed a republic to the foreign-policy hero Anwar Sadat (who initiated the peace process with Israel) to the absolutist,unipolar and unchecked presidential system seen now,the men with medals and ribbons dominated Egypts political playground.
But that Egypt is no more. With an economy now shoddy,a culture now oppressive,rioters on the street have called for change and mobilised opposition. This year,unquestionably,the debate over succession will gain momentum. Egypt may wake up to the fact that voting and pharaohs dont easily co-exist.
alia.allana@expressindia.com
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