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This is an archive article published on August 26, 2009
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Opinion Advantage Hooda

Dissolving the legislature and calling for fresh elections is always a calculated risk for a ruling party. In Haryana,Bhupinder Singh Hooda has done so...

indianexpress

Dhananjai Joshi

August 26, 2009 11:42 PM IST First published on: Aug 26, 2009 at 11:42 PM IST

Dissolving the legislature and calling for fresh elections is always a calculated risk for a ruling party. In Haryana,Bhupinder Singh Hooda has done so,but the word “risk” hardly fits the political equation in the state. The race to the Haryana assembly isn’t really an open race and the Congress’s sweep in the recent parliamentary elections raises questions about the conventional wisdom,which stated that the Congress tends to lose when there is a strong alliance against it. It’s true that since the first election held in the state in 1967,all anti-Congress alliances performed very well — Janata Party in 1977,Lok Dal-BJP alliance in 1987,HVP (Haryana Vikas Pary)-BJP alliance in 1996 and the INLD (Indian National Lok Dal)-BJP Alliance in 2000. But in 2009,despite a fairly well-tuned INLD-BJP alliance,the Congress swept the state. The National Election Study 2009 (NES 09) conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies reveals that majority of voters in Haryana express a high level of satisfaction with the Hooda government. His government is rated much better than the previous Om Prakash Chautala led INLD-BJP government and the general perception is that the state government has delivered.

This,along with the personal popularity of the chief minister,gave the Congress an excellent opportunity to counter the logic of anti-incumbency; early elections come as no surprise.

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However,there are larger shifts taking place in the politics of Haryana that have facilitated the Congress’s consolidation. Politics in Haryana has traditionally been dominated by Jats,who constitute more than one-fourth of the electorate. Till about a decade ago the INLD,and before that the Lok Dal,got a majority of the Jat votes,while the Congress depended on a consolidated non-Jat vote. Even popular Jat leaders like Bansi Lal could not pull Jat votes from the Lok Dal under the leadership of Devi Lal. An alliance with the BJP,a party with a very limited urban and upper caste vote base in Haryana,gave the INLD the necessary edge over the Congress.

This gradually started changing from the 2004 parliamentary elections as the gap between the Congress and INLD among Jat voters started narrowing. This gap further narrowed in the 2005 assembly election,which was the first state election in which the Congress registered a two-thirds majority.

An analysis of the NES 09 data reveals that in the 2009 parliamentary election the gap between the Congress and the INLD-BJP alliance came down to just four percentage points. The alliance’s lead among upper castes was only 5 percentage points — too small for a core support base. Other than Jat and upper caste voters the INLD-BJP alliance trailed behind the Congress in all communities.

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The data also indicates that the INLD and BJP could not transfer enough votes to the alliance. When respondents in NES 09 were asked whom will they vote for in the forthcoming assembly election,47 per cent said the Congress,5 percentage points more than the parliamentary election. The INLD seems to be set to get 18 per cent,over 2 percentage points more than what it got,while the BJP might suffer marginal losses. This could mean a clean two-thirds majority for Hooda.

This might give a further boost to the already high spirits of the Congress,and the breaking of the INLD-BJP alliance will certainly add to the party’s momentum. Nevertheless,the Congress needs to watch out for the HJC (Haryana Janhit Congress) and BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party). The HJC has a strong presence in the Bhiwani region and its leader Bhajan Lal draws considerable support from upper castes and Upper OBCs. The HJC could play spoiler in a few seats there. The BSP is a formidable threat to the Congress,as nearly 63 per cent of Jatavs in the state reported that they would vote for the BSP in the coming assembly elections. In the recent parliamentary election the BSP got nearly 16 per cent which means that it has crossed the threshold of viability. In seats with a substantial Dalit population the BSP could play spoiler.

The BJP still has a long road ahead in Haryana and it needs to move beyond its traditional urban and upper caste support base in order to be a strong player beyond playing spoiler. Meanwhile,the INLD needs to look at newer social and political alliances. Its alliance with the BJP has ceased to do it any good. With its presence among Jats,the INLD could seriously look towards the BSP as a potential ally. Given the degree of social tensions between Dalits and Jats at the ground level,it might be difficult to transfer votes to each other,but such an alliance is the most viable way to challenge the Congress’s dominance,if not in this election then in the years to come.

The writer is director,Global Research & Analytics Corporation. He is based in Delhi express@expressindia.com