Opinion A Doha round

Travelling to Doha in November 2008,Prime Minister Manmohan Singh declared India’s intent to elevate the bilateral relationship with Qatar to the strategic level. From energy security to defence exchanges and the promotion of mutual investments to counter-terror cooperation,Singh and Qatar’s Emir Hamad had outlined an expansive framework for bilateral engagement.

Three and a half years later,that promise remains largely unfulfilled. Delhi,in general,and the UPA government,in particular,has a problem delivering on agreements signed at high-level summits.

Add to that India’s structural problem of engaging the Middle East. Unlike India’s Look East policy,India’s outreach to the Persian Gulf and the Middle East tends to be episodic. Not surprisingly,sustaining high-level political visits to Qatar has been a problem for Delhi.

Qatar,in turn,has been basking in the glory of an activist,some have called it adventurous,foreign policy. Sending troops into Libya against Gaddafi,leading an Arab coalition against Syria’s Bashar al-Assad,and bringing the Taliban out from the cold,Qatar’s international profile has dramatically risen. Yet,its relationship with India has remained well below potential.

Despite Delhi and Doha looking past each other,India and Qatar’s need for each other continues to grow. Qatar,which has the world’s third largest natural gas reserves after Russia and Iran,and India,one of the biggest importers of natural gas,are condemned to cooperate.

India’s demand for natural gas,which is the cleanest of all the fossil fuels,is rapidly ballooning. For all the interest in fanciful,overland pipeline projects,importing liquefied natural gas through sea-borne tankers from nearby Qatar remains one of the most attractive options for India. Trade in natural gas is built around stable long-term arrangements. A special relationship with Doha would be a critical element of any Indian strategy on energy security.

Meanwhile,the changing nature of the global natural gas market makes India central to Qatar’s “demand security”. The discovery of additional natural gas reserves and the use of new technologies like fracking for producing natural gas from shale deposits have transformed the supply situation.

Traditional importers like the US are investing massively in the exploitation of domestic shale deposits. There is talk of US becoming a net exporter of natural gas in the not too distant future. The unfolding changes in the distribution of natural gas production make it imperative for India and Qatar to work out a new set of agreements on volumes and pricing of gas supplies.

In 2008,India and Qatar recognised new opportunities for promotion of investments in each other’s industries. Sitting on massive petro dollar surpluses,Qatar offered to consider making substantive investments in Indian infrastructure and other sectors. But there has been little movement since then.

Meanwhile,as the UPA government sent out anti-business signals and dampened the international investor confidence,the emirate has been focused on acquiring assets in the West.

While businesses from the rest of the world are queuing up in Doha to participate in many mega projects — the Olympics in 2020 and the football World Cup in 2022,for example — Indian corporates have been tardy in establishing a credible presence in the emirate. Singh and Hamad have their task cut out in facilitating an integration of the two economies.

In 2008,PM and Hamad agreed to deepen defence cooperation,especially in the maritime domain. While the notion of India as a regional security provider has grown,India’s ponderous defence establishment has been unable to respond to the demands for security assistance from Qatar.

In the years since the PM travelled to Doha,the political situation in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East has evolved beyond imagination. As new forces rise from the wreckage of the Arab Spring,Qatar has put itself at the centre of the current disorder in the Middle East.

Doha has also injected itself into Afghanistan by promoting a dialogue between the Taliban and the West as the US begins to withdraw its military forces by 2014. If Delhi aspires for any political influence in our turbulent western neighbourhood,Doha is one of the important places to focus on. Qatar,in turn,has every reason to look east towards India as an important element in its economic future and the regional balance.

The writer is a distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation,express@expressindia.com