There is a tide in the affairs of men which, taken at a flood, leads onto fortune.— Shakespeare Do the election results pave the way for the BJP to go in for early general elections? There is terrific momentum. It could be lost if the BJP and NDA strategists wait till end-2004. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the next monsoon will be as good as the last one. A pre-election budget is always dicey business keeping an eye on industry as well as the electorate. Chandrababu Naidu of the TDP is already straining at the leash for a quick poll. The two stars of the BJP election strategy, Arun Jaitley and Pramod Mahajan, the latter more specifically, must be smacking their lips at prospects of elections in Maharashtra. Karnataka, too, is due to go to the polls in 2004. The prime minister, whose moderate line has determined the course of the state elections, is not likely to be rushed into a decision without proper reflection. He has already cut short his visit to Ghana. He was to have attended the Commonwealth heads of government summit in Abuja, Nigeria, from December 4 to 8 and move on to Ghana for a bilateral visit. It was to be part of Vajpayee’s external affairs agenda: invoke images of Nkrumah to inject some life into NAM, something he had promised during his visit to Syria last month. His being away from New Delhi for a week would have enabled him to escape the flak just in case the party did badly in the states. But now that the party has won, on his agenda not the VHP’s, he is looking forward to being in Parliament, triumphant, on Monday. If there is to be a decision on early polls, it will be after a most careful study of details. In Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the results are historic in several ways. Never has the BJP won with such a thumping majority in the two states. This reassertion of the BJP in the Hindi belt is a huge morale booster for the party. That these elections were contested and won on issues of development is a turning point for the party and the nation. The party’s moderate, non-communal platform makes it that much more attractive to NDA allies. Indeed, the appeal will now extend beyond the present allies. Sharad Pawar, Mulayam Singh Yadav, one of the two DMKs and many more watching from the sidelines will now contemplate a wider coalition with the BJP. The way may be opening up for leaders like Chandrababu Naidu to abandon their ambiguity towards the BJP. He supported the NDA but did not join the Central government. The reason was simple. The Congress is the principal foe in the state and therefore supporting it at the Centre was out of the question. Yet total identification with the BJP was risky because such a move would frighten away the sizeable Muslim vote in the state. Since the Congress is the principal combatant in almost all states, non-Congress forces were always in search of a rallying point at the Centre. A moderate, Vajpayee-led BJP becomes that much more attractive for them. The demonstrable moderation Vajpayee has introduced into the proceedings, particularly since his April 18 speech in Srinagar extending a hand of friendship to Pakistan, highlighting issues of governance which conditioned the party’s campaign in the state elections, makes the BJP an acceptable party even for the minorities. After the 2004 Lok Sabha poll, there would be no NDA coalition if “Mian Musharraf” was the slogan foisted on the BJP by the likes of Narendra Modi. The moderate hand that has guided the party’s fortunes even in the Hindi heartland makes Vajpayee a rallying point for an even wider, more durable coalition. Election discussions will dominate the media on the day the Babri Masjid was demolished exactly 11 years ago: December 6, 1992. This should be occasion for sober reflection by the minorities. V.P. Singh’s introduction of the Mandal Commission recommendations had provoked the entire Mandir movement, paving the way for the BJP to come to power at the head of the NDA. In 1992, Muslims defected en bloc from the Congress and found temporary refuge in caste formations like the ones led by Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati. The minorities did not realise that their being scattered precipitated their total irrelevance at the Centre. Vajpayee’s statesmanship in foreign affairs, his emphasis on governance, not hindutva, gives the minorities a chance to contemplate the future creatively. A listless, leaderless Congress which prohibited even Sonia Gandhi from visiting Muslim camps in Gujarat after the riots cannot be the basket in which to place all eggs.
