Waiting,watching Kim

Experts say the launch vehicle’s (rocket’s) second and third stages did not separate as planned and thus nothing could have been put into orbit.

It’s too early to make any definitive conclusions in the fresh smoke of claim and counterclaim. But one thing can be said: if the launch was a failure,it was a successful failure!

To begin with,North Korea withstood the global pressure and went ahead with the launch. States like Japan had taken the position that they would ‘kill’ the rocket if it seemed that it would fail while over Japanese territory. Japan’s self-defence forces were ready with their Aegis missile-equipped destroyer forces,along with interceptor missiles in the Sea of Japan. However,their anti-missile technology has huge limitations: Japan has no capability,as such,to preemptively hit the missile on its launch pad. To correctly engage a missile during its ascent/descent mode is a very difficult proposition. These so-called ABM (anti-ballistic missile) systems have huge technological limitations; that is the probable real reason why the US chickened out and didn’t attempt to “kill” the missile after initial noises that it would.

North Korea is still a “dwarf state” both in terms of nuclear weapons and of delivery platform-related technology. This was the third test since 1998 in their project to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). This last test is a partial success because it appears that the first stage at least worked successfully. Yet it would be a grave mistake to over-read their technological capabilities. (The media was reacting as if tomorrow North Korea could attack Alaska.) There is a subtle difference between launching a satellite and an ICBM; the latter requires well-developed re-entry technology as well. That’s a while away for a country that is not even yet able to put a satellite in orbit.

India needs to have its own position on the North Korea issue. This is diplomatically necessary: after all,both are Asian states,both are nuclear weapon states but outside the NPT — but India is one of the most successful space powers in the region and it isn’t in its interest to see others using space technology as camouflage for their military necessities. India is aware of the North Korea-Pakistan nexus in regard to nuclear and missile technologies and also recognises China’s soft corner for North Korea. Yet public statements appear to be not very keen to jump to any hasty conclusions — at least at this stage,when the issue is still with the UN Security Council. It is understood that UN sanctions against North Korea won’t have much meaning. In any case,Russia and China have already made their intentions clear about not backing any Security Council resolution against North Korea.

At present India’s argument is that the international community should exercise restraint and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) could look into the matter. It’s not known why India is suggesting the IAEA route for issues related to missiles and space. Perhaps somebody noted President Obama’s recent statements about the urgency to look at issues related to the CTBT and the FMCT? India understands that the entire debate — be it nuclear technology,missile technology,anti-ballistic missile technology or space technology — is intertwined. India suffers from regional compulsions in regard to most of these issues so whatever criticism a policy of ambivalence may provoke,it does help. Nothing’s forcing India to take a stand; so perhaps this time a wait-and-watch policy could be the best policy.

The writer researches non-traditional threats to national security at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses,Delhi express@expressindia.com