Journalism of Courage
Karzai visit focuses attention on Delhis need to nuance its Af-Pak strategy in a delicate moment.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai is in India this week at a doubly delicate moment. Karzais second presidential term is coming to a close and elections to choose his successor are due in April 2014,amid the planned withdrawal of most American forces by the end of next year and the resurgence of the Taliban,backed by the Pakistan army. The uncertainty surrounding the transition in Kabul is matched by the political meltdown in Delhi,especially after the rout of the Congress party in the latest round of state elections. While general elections are due only in April-May next year,the Manmohan Singh government is beginning to look like a lame duck.
All this makes Indias challenge in Afghanistan that much more complicated. On his part,Karzai is putting greater weight on military cooperation with India,not as an alternative to that with the US,but as an important part of his strategy to diversify Kabuls defence relationships after 2014. India is committed,under the strategic partnership agreement signed with Afghanistan in 2011,to extend military assistance to Kabul. That commitment is now under test as Karzai seeks expansive defence engagement with India,including the supply of heavy equipment. Delhi,however,appears to be rather cautious. While it must carefully weigh the regional consequences of supplying weaponry to Kabul,Delhi cant ignore the dangers that will flow from the Pakistan armys likely advances in Afghanistan after 2014. The answer for Delhi lies in extending strong military support for Kabul and complementing it with an expanded political engagement with Pakistans civilian leaders. Indias Af-Pak strategy must walk on two legs,but walk it must.
