The gathering drought

•As of last Wednesday,two-thirds of all districts in the country had received scanty (60 to 99 per cent less than normal) or deficient (20 to 59 per cent less than normal) rainfall.

•Twenty four of the 35 states/UTs had scanty or deficient rainfall.

•A total of 141 districts in six states have already been declared drought-affected by the respective state governments. These include: 58 districts in UP,27 in Assam and 24 in Jharkhand. In addition,Andhra Pradesh,West Bengal,Bihar and Maharashtra are contemplating declaring parts of their state as drought-hit.

•According to latest forecasts,rainfall for August is likely to be below the 101 per cent predicted by the IMD earlier which will add to the accumulated deficiency for the season. The first week of August recorded 64 per cent below normal rainfall.

•In the worst drought year of last two decades,2002,overall deficiency in rainfall for the entire four-month season was 19 per cent. Barring an exceptional revival,experts believe the deficiency this year could be close to that or even worse — the deficiency is already 25 per cent in the first two months and chances of recovery are slim.

•The main sowing window for kharif is already over. Paddy sowing is 57.75 lakh hectares less than last year. Oilseeds acreage is down by over 5 lakh hectares.

•The entire paddy growing belt,comprising West Bengal,Andhra Pradesh,UP,Bihar,Punjab,Chhattisgarh and Haryana has received either scanty or deficient rainfall.

•In its latest research report on Indian economy released today,Goldman Sachs has said that as a result of poor monsoon,agricultural growth was likely to show a 2 per cent dip as compared to last year. This would shave off 0.3 percentage points from the expected GDP growth this year.

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar today told the Lok Sabha that the Prime Minister will also meet Chief Ministers of all states on August 17 to discuss measures to be taken to prevent price rise and hoarding of food commodities. The Chief Ministers are supposed to meet here that day to discuss internal security.

Experts believe that more and more states will formally declare this year as drought-affected. A declaration of drought leads to a number of relief measures in affected areas like suspension in revenue collection,waiving of interest on loans,cash relief and assistance for crop damage and loss to animal husbandry.

As of now,the monsoon is in,what is known as,“break” condition. It is raining in the foothills of the Himalayas and some places in the north-eastern region.

Prediction models from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting show that over the next three to four days,rainfall activity is likely to shift southwards to West Bengal,Bihar,Jharkhand,Orissa,Chhattisgarh and parts of Madhya Pradesh.

Subsequently,around August 14,the monsoon is likely to move westwards and then northwards. Weather scientists say a revival in monsoon over Kerala is being seen around August 15 and all hopes are now pinned on the quantity of rainfall in the latter half of this month.