‘Sensex at 20,000 pts,reforms,oil willing’

Economic reforms and stable crude oil prices could drive the Sensex up,Kotak Securities said

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Economic reforms and stable crude oil prices could drive the Sensex up to 20,000 points by March next year,brokerage company Kotak Securities today said.

“We can touch 20,000 sometime during the first quarter of next calendar year,based on our assumptions that crude prices will come off and reforms will start maybe from the next quarter”,Dipen Shah,Senior Vice-President of Kotak Securities said here at a book release function.

Earlier in January,the Bombay Stock Exchange’s (BSE’s) benchmark index had touched the 20,000 mark.

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Reversing losses from the previous two sessions,Sensex today surged 147 points to a seven-session high of 18,653.87.

On the upcoming quarterly policy review of the Reserve Bank slated for July 26,Shah said a 50 basis points (bps) hike in policy rates could pull down the market.

“We are expecting a 25 bps hike,and if 25 bps comes it will be a non event. If it is a 50 bps hike,it will be negative for the market,because the market is not expecting a 50 bps hike…and markets can come off a bit more than the current level.”

The RBI has hiked lending (repo) and borrowing (reverse repo) rates 10 times since March 2010,in an attempt to tame the stubbornly high inflation.