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Journalism of Courage
It takes more than an economic crisis to revolutionise Spanish politics. Bombs,like those that killed 191 people on Madrid trains in 2004,can topple governments. But unemployment at 18 per cent does not. So the European elections,which gave the opposition Peoples Party PP a modest four-point victory,suggest. Yet the PPs win was significant. This is the first national vote it has won over José Luis Rodríguez Zapateros Socialists in nine years. A majority have expressed their will for change, said the PP leader,Mariano Rajoy.
Has the tide turned? There are plenty of ills to worry about. One in five Spaniards will soon be out of work. Economists predict that Spain will be one of the last rich countries to emerge from the recession. Some 30 per cent of children leave school without qualifications. Only 5 per cent of exports are high-tech,and research spending is feeble. More than a million new homes sit unsold. Meanwhile a large part of the workforce is protected by armour-clad contracts.
Spain takes over the six-month rotating European Union presidency in January,offering Mr Zapatero photo opportunities galore with world leaders. His party machine is already trying to sell him as Europes Obama. He has serious business to attend to at homewhich an absence of elections should make easier. First is the parlous state of some savings banks. Spanish banks may have avoided subprime excesses,but home-made poisons are floating to the surface. The Caja Castilla La Mancha was only the first to fall; more may soon be in trouble and a euro 9 billion 13 billion rescue fund is in the pipeline.
A longer-term task is to transform Spains low-tech economy. Mr Zapatero promises a sustainable-economy law but has given few details. He has no desire to confront the unions,so radical labour-market reform is unlikely. Real change might require him to make enemies. He has shown no appetite for that.
The Economist Newspaper Limited 2009
