Monsoon to hit N India by month-end

As on date,the northern limit of monsoon is stationed almost in the geographical middle of India’s landmass — extending from Rajkot and Ahmedabad in Gujarat,to Indore and Seoni in Madhya Pradesh,to Gaya in Bihar.

Ideally,most of Uttar Pradesh,entire Madhya Pradesh and Bihar should have been receiving monsoon rains by this time. However,the monsoon winds are still to enter Uttar Pradesh and advanced only upto south-western parts of Bihar till now. The last advancement of monsoon happened on June 18,when remaining parts of Chhattisgarh,Orissa,West Bengal and Sikkim,almost entire Jharkhand and parts of Bihar had started receiving rainfall.

Since June 18,monsoon is in a weak phase due to a weaker than normal flow of rain-bearing winds over the Arabian Sea. But weathermen say,a revival of monsoon is likely as early as Thursday. A low pressure area or a cyclonic circulation in the lower or middle tropospheric levels is being seen developing in the north of Bay of Bengal around June 25. This system is likely to slowly move inland and help bring rainfall over eastern parts of peninsular India including Andhra Pradesh,Orissa,Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh.

Over the next few days,this situation is also likely to result in rainfall in Bihar,Jharkhand,eastern Uttar Pradesh and parts of northern Madhya Pradesh.

Further advancement in the northwestern parts,which are currently in the midst of a heat wave,is expected only towards the end of this month.

Till Tuesday,the overall monsoon rainfall in the country as a whole was 9 per cent below normal,with central India receiving 16 per cent below normal rainfall. June accounts for about 18 per cent of the total rainfall that India gets in the four-month monsoon season extending from June to September.

A delay of a week to 10 days at this stage might not be too costly for the agricultural sector. There is still some time for sowing of kharif crops and if monsoon revival happens as is being predicted now,farmers in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar do not have much to worry about. However,if delay extends beyond ten days and rainfall continues to elude these areas by the end of this month,sowing of some crops like paddy is likely to be affected.