Jairam raises red flag over power projections

Jairam Ramesh baffled his senior colleagues in the Cabinet by stating in the full Planning Commission meeting that the panels ambitious goal to add 100,000 MW to Indias power generation capacity during the 12th Plan period is ecologically impossible. The environment and forests ministers strong remark exposed the persistent dissension among Indias top policymakers over the extent to which environmental concerns can be allowed to constrain economic growth.

Jairam Ramesh on Thursday baffled his senior colleagues in the Cabinet by stating in the full Planning Commission meeting that the panels ambitious goal to add 100,000 MW to Indias power generation capacity during the 12th Plan period (2012-17) is ecologically impossible. The environment and forests ministers strong remark exposed the persistent dissension among Indias top policymakers over the extent to which environmental concerns can be allowed to constrain economic growth.

The strife within the Cabinet needs to be seen against the background of the mounting global pressure on New Delhi to take binding commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and agree to a new treaty to succeed the United Nations Kyoto Protocol from 2013. The dominant view in the government is that India needs leeway to grow its economy rapidly for several more years and lift millions out of poverty.

Even as a party to the global effort to reduce these emissions that stoke global warming,India has so far refused to take any binding commitments. It said,instead,that it would autonomously reduce the intensity of carbon emissions per unit of production by 20-25% by 2020.

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Ramesh,who was seen taking a firm view against industries that could have potentially adverse impact on the environment (Poscos steel plant and Vedantas bauxite mining venture in Orissa stumbled upon his ministrys refusal to give NOCs) has,of late,relented a lot. His remarks in the Plan panel meeting chaired by the Prime Minister,however,show that the vexed issue (environment versus growth) is not fully resolved even within the government.

What has concerned the minister is the fact that 90% of the proposed power capacity would be coal-based and would be big emitters of greenhouse gases. Also,many of the power plants and associated coal mines have to necessarily come up in tribal and forest areas,the depredation of which,it is reckoned,could inflict huge damage on the environment. Coal-based power plants emit large amounts of carbon dioxide,the principal greenhouse gas from using fossil fuels. Also,these plants are huge consumers of water,a resource that is turning increasingly scarce.

Sources said that along with Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia,senior cabinet ministers Pranab Mukherjee and P Chidambaram,who were present in the full Plan panel meeting,also disagreed with Ramesh. They cited Chinas relative indifference to the global call to cut greenhouse gas emissions till it became the worlds largest emitter of these gases. Beijing was largely unresponsive to the UN effort to cut emissions,thanks to its eagerness to power the juggernaut of its economy. There is a positive correlation between energy and growth,Mukherjee is understood to have asserted.

Rameshs obduracy has allegedly been a reason for Indias power capacity addition in the current (11th) Plan falling woefully short of targets. His no-go diktat has severely constrained Coal Indias bid to augment production and consequently held up many large power projects. A couple of ultra mega power plants at Bedabehal in Orissa and Akaltara in Chhattisgarh have also faced delays due to lack of environmental clearances.

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The power ministry has now internally estimated that actual capacity addition during the current Plan would be 51,000 MW as as against the original target of 78,000 MW (which was later revised to 62,000 MW).

Indias total installed power generation capacity of 173,600 MW compares poorly with Chinas 800,000 MW (the country added over a 100,000 MW in 2009 alone). India has a peak power deficit of 10.3% (2010-11) while China has surplus power.

While 54% of Indias existing power generation capacity is coal-based,90% of the proposed capacity in the 12th Plan would depend on this fuel. Although there is a conscious policy decision to shift to more benign fuels like gas and LNG and also bolster the renewable energy sources and nuclear power,those cant be immediate solutions to Indias growing power deficit.

Replacing fossil fuels with more benign alternatives requires large amounts of investment. The World Bank has recently said India has to increase its capital expenditure by 14% for reducing its carbon intensity by 30% by 2020.

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China overtook the US to become the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in 2006,with its share of global emissions being about 25%. The US share of global emissions is about 20%,while India,the third largest emitter,is a distant third with a share of 5.5%.

Having become the largest emitter and been able to grow its economy at a scorching pace for many years,China is now party to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

It has offered to reduce carbon dioxide emissions per each unit of national income by 40-45% by 2020 from 2005 levels. In a recent statement,Beijing said it aims to cut the amount of energy and carbon dioxide emissions required for every unit of GDP by 16-17% a year till 2015.

Even after the proposed cuts,the amount of greenhouse gas emissions of both India and China would keep rising,but at a pace slower than their economic growth.