History on one side,work done on the other

Campaigning,subdued as it was,showed no sign of either side heading for a certain win

The Congress-led UDF is pinning its hopes on history in Kerala,a state with a tradition of booting out the ruling government. The CPM-led LDF,on the other hand,is banking on its achievements over the past five years and looking at historys one exception: in 1977,after the CPM fell out with its allies,the state did re-elect the CPI-led front to power.

Campaigning,subdued as it was,showed no sign of either side heading for a certain win.

The UDFs hopes that history will repeat itself were bolstered by its success in the Lok Sabha elections of 2009 and the local body elections of 2010. The UDF is also banking on a likely consolidation of Christian and Muslim votes,half the total,as well as those of the upper class Hindu Nairs. The backward Hindu remains behind the LDF but other communities have constantly shifted loyalties.

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The LDF government expects very little anti-incumbency,if at all. Among the achievements it highlighted in its campaign,key was the way the social security network has been strengthened. The government faces no ire from the farm sector thanks to better prices for all produces; it has taken 2 lakh into service,brought half the states households under a welfare network and hiked salaries. For once,LDF ministers have faced no corruption charges from the UDF.

The way these beneficiaries are divided,however,is crucial. The BPL segment,for example,could have given a mandate for the welfare measures but it does not constitute a solid votebank in too many places,except the coastal areas and the plantation sector. In the coastal areas,these measures are expected to clinch votes from the Latin Catholics who form the fishermen community; traditionally,Christians have supported the UDF.

What could upset the LDF is politics within. Since 2006,three allies of the CPM have split with large sections going to the UDF.

Within the CPM,a rift persists between the official faction led by Pinarayi Vijayan and those loyal to V S Achuthanandan. The CMs renomination had enthused the cadre but their spirits were dampened when he was not backed up by the CPM machinery,which was silent in many districts.

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Another critical element could be the performance of the BJP. The party has a history of trading in votes,helping the UDF and the LDF at various levels,in various seats.

There is also what is often described as the cynicism of the average Keralite,who always seems to work against an incumbent government. His attitude towards any politician seems to be,You made money for five years,let the other make some for the next five.

In the last few polls,the winner has been only just ahead on vote shares; the difference in the number of seats won has been huge.