Indias business interests across the Middle East and North Africa have expanded dramatically in recent years. Several Indian companies are heavily invested in Libya,and stand to suffer considerably from the ongoing tumult. 15,400 Indians had left Libya by the time the rebellion against Gaddafi gathered steam,according to the foreign ministry; many thousands remained. Yet Indias foreign policy remains cautious and wary,strangely reluctant to take on a role commensurate with its weight in the world.
In UN forums,it has been conspicuous for straddling the fence as a non-permanent Security Council member,it abstained when the UNSC authorised the use of force in Libya. Unwilling to recognise the changed terms of the debate,India prefers the rote north-vs-south debate,unwilling to see that the old consensus has cracked. Our commercial interests are clearly at cross-purposes with our diplomatic approach. Whats more,the Arab Spring has genuinely upended previous calculations. What is happening in Libya would well happen in Syria,in this cascading revolution across the region.
India,like much of the world,had assumed a certain stability in the region,and framed its diplomacy with those assumptions. However,this chaos in Libya cant be construed only in terms of Western intervention (though that is an admittedly complicating factor). It is also an internal aspiration for change,or like in Syria,a majority trying to empower itself against minority domination. Libyas National Transition Council is recognised by 45 countries. India must make up its own mind after clear-eyed analysis,keeping its own interests in mind. Most importantly,this situation is a reminder of how Indias diplomacy needs to be quick-witted and nimble,able to recognise reversals and adapt. When the facts change,our foreign policy must be able to assimilate them and change accordingly. Instead of letting a broad set of principles articulated in the past determine present strategy,we must be guided by our real priorities. As revolution sweeps across the region,India must go beyond the standard interactions with governments and develop ties with the new forces there,so that it can take an informed position on these contestations.