Exports continue to improve,fall 11.4 pc

The Indian economys steady climb out of the doldrums of the 08-09 economic crisis continued in October as exports fell by 11.4 per cent....

The Indian economys steady climb out of the doldrums of the 08-09 economic crisis continued in October as exports fell by 11.4 per cent,an improvement from Septembers decline by 13.8 per cent growth rate and Augusts 19.5 per cent fall.

Exports should resurface above zero in January after the Christmas and New Years retail seasons,said commerce and industry secretary Rahul Khullar.

Exports generated 12,518 million in revenue in October,compared to 13,608 million in September. Although the month-on-month picture has suddenly taken a turn for the worse since August,when exports brought in 14,489 million,there is great optimism that the year-to-year indicator is showing signs of life.

The difference between October exports in 2008 and 2009 is a mere 304,000 compared to Septembers deficit of around 800,000 and 3,235 million in August.

Exports had taken a major hit globally during the economic recession which shattered world economies in the last quarter of 2008. One year later,experts are confident that the Indian economy can match those low numbers by January,then resume true economic growth in the last quarter of fiscal 2010,a sentiment which proves that the economic downturn is not yet history.

Please dont say the problem is over, said Khullar while emphasising that any withdrawal of stimulus money would be premature. Do not withdraw the stimulus. Just because we have seen some nascent recovery,it is not a sign to pull the stimulus.

While the worlds developed economies continue to pine for signs of growth and progress,India and its greatest competitor,China are holding up the world economy. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China,exports in China fell by 7.3 per cent,an improvement from negative 9.9 per cent in September and negative 15.4 per cent in August.

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The ministry is far from satisfied with Indias current output to the world market. During his interaction with the members of the parliamentary consultative committee,minister of commerce and industry Anand Sharma said export growth should reach 15 per cent in 2010-2011 with the target of 25 per cent per annum in site.

Indias exports of goods and services are expected to be doubled while the long-term policy objective is to double Indias share in the global trade, Sharma said.

The secretary pointed the months of November 2008 and January 2009 as months of shifting trends in the economy; November for its steep decline in exports and January which marked a relative return to normalcy. It really dipped,then we saw recovery from January on, Khullar said.

The preliminary data released by the ministry today points to three sources of proof for the steady economic turn around: a change in demand,as is indicative by an increase in textile and gems and jewellery figures; a diversification from exporters management of their sector and sector specific trends which show a shift in demand.