Advantage UDF as LDF likely to suffer losses

The campaigning was dominated by the CPI(M)-Abdul Nasser Madhani affair,with sporadic eruption of the Lavalin scam. Both issues blunted the Communist call to fight communalism and corruption. The Madhani factor is feared to trigger a Hindu backlash in favour of the Congress. On the other hand,efforts of the IUML,a Congress ally,may prevent a negative outcome among Muslim voters. Though the campaigning did not delve into the performance of the Left government,the tangible anti-incumbency factor would sway voters.

The intra-party dilemmas of the CPI(M) will also affect the results. For the first time,the CPI(M) rebels are contesting in four Communist bastions,where they threaten to spoil the chances of the official party candidates. In Kozhikode,where the candidate was fielded overruling objections from the district leadership,the party fears negative votes from its own cadres.

The mutual mistrust between the CPI(M) and the CPI,which culminated at the time of seat sharing,would reflect upon the voting. In several constituencies,such as Wayanad and Thiruvananthapuram,the CPI strongly suspects that its candidates would not get the entire votes from the CPI(M).

The JD(S),which walked out of the Front over denial of its sitting seat,is out to to topple the CPI(M) candidates,especially in Alathur and Vatakara.

Another decisive factor is the support from communities. The Christians and the upper class Hindus have sent clear messages to their folk to vote for the UDF. The Ezhava community,a pro-Left prominent OBC segment,has split its support between the LDF and the UDF,with the latter getting a major share.

Apart from the above solid factors,political undercurrents and secret deals would also swing the results. The CPI(M) that had silenced rebels within and junior partners wants to prove that its strategy has been attested by the electorate. On the eve of the poll,speculation of an NCP-CPI(M) deal are rife in Wayanad,where NCP state chief K Muraleedharan is in the fray. In return,the NCP may support the CPI(M) in Kozhikode and Vatakara,two prestige contests for CPI(M) secretary Pinarayi Vijayan.

Besides,a chunk of BJP votes would also go to either the Congress or the CPI(M),depending on the negotiations and political factors. Though the BJP has candidates in 20 seats,serious campaigning had taken place only in four or five constituencies,where senior functionaries are in the fray.

The BSP can affect the fortunes of the mainline candidates in Thiruvananthapuram,where its state president Neela Lohithadasan Nadar is expected to take away a chunk of Nadar votes.

In Kerala,the apolitical votes and negative votes play a crucial role in any poll outcome. On both accounts,the Left would face public wrath.

The previous election results show that even a minor shift in the vote-share can bring in massive victory for any front. In 1999,the LDF won nine seats with a share of 43.7 per cent of the polled votes. The same Front bagged 18 seats when it polled 46.1 per cent of votes in 2004.

Candidates to watch out for

• Shashi Tharoor (Congress)

• Hussain Randathani (Independent backed by CPI-M)

• E Ahamed (IUML)

• K Muraleedharan (NCP)