Tough love in Europe

Basking in the inevitable comparison between his huge popularity in Europe and the deep aversion there to the President George W. Bush, Obama is smart enough to deliver a few tough messages to the old continent. Even as he panders to Europe with his ringing rhetoric endorsing multilateralism and rejecting the unilateralism of Bush, Obama would want to present a few bills to the Europeans.

For one, he will tell his European interlocutors that the easy days of opposing America by criticising Bush are over. Unlike Bush and his colleagues who infuriated European political classes with their brusque condescension, Obama will convey the same message rather sweetly—he expects Europe to do more in rebuilding the trans-Atlantic alliance. For example by sending more troops to Afghanistan. Europe, Obama will argue, cannot forever ride piggy back on America’s broad shoulders.

Second, Obama is also likely to remind Europeans that there are rising powers in Asia — China and India — that now compete for America’s attention. Pointing to the changing distribution of power in the world, Obama is likely to emphasise that America cannot rely on Europe alone to solve the world’s problems.

Those cynical Americans familiar with Europe’s ways are not impressed by its current infatuation with Obama. Many of them argue, it is a matter of time before Europe’s Obamamania turns into deep disappointment.

Europe, they say, always whines. Irrespective of who the US President is, the Europeans will soon find reasons to complain about either the lack of American leadership, or too much of it. The problem, after all, is rooted in the asymmetrical nature of the relationship.

Media bias

With every passing week, it looks like Obama is running against himself rather than McCain, whose campaign is complaining bitterly about the liberal bias of the American media and its almost fawning coverage of the Democratic candidate.

McCain’s aides point to the latest episode in which The New York Times published an op-ed piece on Iraq by Obama ten days ago, but has sent back an article on the same subject by the Republican candidate.

In its defence, the Times argues it is following the standard procedure of back and forth communication with the author to improve the article. An Op-ed editor of the Times wrote to the McCain campaign that the article will “have to lay out a clear plan for achieving victory – with troops levels, timetables and measures for compelling the Iraqis to cooperate. And it would need to describe the senator’s Afghanistan strategy, spelling out how it meshes with his Iraq plan.”

McCain’s aides responded by saying, “John McCain believes that victory in Iraq must be based on conditions on the ground, not arbitrary timetables. Unlike Barack Obama, that position will not change based on politics or the demands of The New York Times.” To be fair, it must be noted that the Times in the past has often published McCain on its pages.

McCain’s solace

There is one fact, however, which gives some comfort to the McCain campaign. Despite the waves he is making at home and abroad, Obama has been unable to pull himself away from McCain in the poll numbers.

For a few weeks, now the gap between the two has remained at around 4 per cent in favour of Obama. The average of various national polls this week stands at 46 per cent for Obama and 41.3 per cent for McCain.

Republicans believe that Obama remains a vulnerable candidate and that the chinks in his armour can be easily exposed. They hope that McCain will begin to recast his campaign and give it the much needed coherence and punch.

The writer is a Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore iscrmohan@ntu.edu.sg