Too close to call

On the Democratic side, Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama seem likely to continue their state-by-state struggle, after a night of tit-for-tat division of states and delegates, though Clinton claimed the formidable prize of California.

But after months of disarray, Republicans seemed closer to coalescing around Sen. John McCain of Arizona. As McCain logged victories in populous states, including California, and added more delegates to his count, he moved nearer his goal of wrapping up his competition with Mitt Romney of Massachusetts. A third Republican candidate, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, underlined Romney8217;s weakness by posting a series of victories, in a performance that highlighted the discomfort social conservatives have with the field.

Huckabee8217;s relatively strong showing was both a blessing and a curse for McCain, though perhaps more of a blessing. It injected a small note of uncertainty into the Republican race, and potentially delayed the day when McCain would have the stage to himself. But Huckabee appeared to drain votes primarily away from Romney, contributing to his overall weak showing on this night.

This split in the road for Democrats and Republicans should 8212; if and when McCain can claim his party8217;s nomination 8212; be a welcome development for McCain, who would have time to begin quelling doubts about him among conservatives.

James C Dobson, a longtime conservative leader, greeted McCain on primary day with a statement announcing that he would under no circumstances vote for McCain in November. In many states, the vote total for McCain8217;s main opponents 8212; Romney and Huckabee, a Baptist minister 8212; easily outweighed his own.

Huckabee8217;s strong showing was all the more notable for the shoestring nature of his campaign, which has been limping along with little money and no victories since his win in the Iowa caucuses at the beginning of last month.

It is hard to see how McCain can be a strong general election candidate 8212; particularly going up against a Democratic Party so energised 8212; without the support of the party8217;s conservative wing. Assuming Huckabee is unable to wound McCain as he wounded Romney, the results on Tuesday could give McCain time now to begin trying to repair breaches. The riveting competition between Clinton and Obama could provide McCain some cover as he deals with this peacemaking.

The picture is decidedly less auspicious for the Democrats. These were the first head-to-head contests between Clinton and Obama since John Edwards of North Carolina dropped out, and the results suggest that Democrats are fracturing along gender and racial lines as they choose between a black man and a white woman.

Surveys of voters leaving the polls suggested a reprise of the identity politics that has so long characterised 8212; and at times bedeviled 8212; Democratic politics. Black voters overwhelmingly supported Obama, suggesting an end to a period in which Clinton could remain competitive with Obama for the support of that segment of the Democratic electorate.

Women went, by large margins, to Clinton. But in one development that augurs well for Obama, white men 8212; who had largely voted for Edwards before 8212; appeared to be heading in his direction. And young voters also went overwhelmingly for Obama, suggesting a generational divide.

Tough nominating fights can be debilitating for parties. Mike Murphy, a Republican consultant, noted the financial advantage that Obama had going into the weeks ahead and said that Clinton might well be tempted to fight back in a way that could leave the party polarised and provide an opening for McCain.

8220;This could put Hillary into a corner,8221; Murphy said, 8220;and if she tries a real negative campaign, it could split the party and be a hangover in a general election.8221;

But the history of their contest 8212; and the sensibilities displayed by Obama and Clinton 8212; suggests that would not necessarily be the case.

The most bitter period of their campaign was in South Carolina, when Clinton and former President Bill Clinton repeatedly challenged Obama8217;s credentials and credibility. But after signs of backlash, she scaled back, and since then, the two have expressed their differences for the most part with fewer sharp edges. Should that tone continue, this contest may end without the bitterness Republicans were hoping for.

Finally, whatever the passions of Obama8217;s and Clinton8217;s supporters 8212; and by every measure, their passions are about as high as they ever get in politics 8212; Democrats have throughout this year been unified by the intensity of their desire to win back the White House after eight years of President Bush.

And that, more than anything else, may continue to be the best thing Democrats have going as they enter this potentially turbulent period.

She vs He: Why it8217;s a fight to the finish

Republicans have more or less decided on McCain his running mate is still open but Democrats are deeply divided

Hillary has an edge?

8226; Seemed like that when she won 8 states to Obama8217;s 13 and got the biggies California and New York.

8226; But Democrats are for proportional representation while Republicans favour 8220;winner-takes-all8221;

8226; So when McCain won New York, he got all 101 delegates but when Clinton won New York, she got a larger share of the delegates but Obama got some too. In fact, he stole more votes in her home turf of New York than she did in his state, Illinois.

What8217;s the tally?

8226; For Democrats, 1,678 delegates were at stake on Tuesday. 2,025 needed to win the nomination. Delegates awarded under complicated rules that vary between states, so no final figure yet.

8226; One count puts Clinton at 845 to Obama8217;s 765; another suggests Obama got 850 to her 840. Expect both sides to spin the data

Who prefers whom?

8226; Most under 30 vote Obama, while the majority over 65 choose Clinton.

8226; Clinton8217;s core constituencies: women, Hispanics, Asian-Americans and older voters.

8226; Obama swept Georgia, where more than half of the population is Black. But he8217;s done well among white men. Won Alabama, Colorado, Delaware and Idaho.

What next?

8226; Louisiana, Washington, Virginia, Ohio, Texas hold contests over the next few weeks.

8226; Clinton has loyal voter base, her experience card working with older voters

8226; Obama camp upset that surge didn8217;t help; but he8217;s flush with funds