Tokyo has no ways to deal with a fast-greying population

TOKYO, January 3: Asian countries turn to Japan almost on reflex whenever they are stumped by economic problems. But when it comes to thinki...

TOKYO, January 3: Asian countries turn to Japan almost on reflex whenever they are stumped by economic problems. But when it comes to thinking up ways of dealing with a fast-greying population, Tokyo may not be the best answer.

This despite the fact that Japan whose population is ageing faster than those of other industrialised countries, has been grappling with this demographic trend for years. "The Japanese government is not handling the ageing problem as well as it should," said population expert Toshio Kuroda of Nihon University, who contributed to a new international study on ageing sponsored by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). "It is difficult to tell other countries they can learn from us." Recently, the UNFPA said Asian countries, despite high rates of population growth, will soon be following Japan’s lead and see larger and larger segments of their populations turning grey.

UNFPA researchers say that because of its affluence and lower fertility, East Asia will experience this transition first, followed by South-East Asia and then South Asia. West Asia will be the last to pick up the trend, they add.

"There is a link between economic development and ageing," UNFPA chief Nafis Sadiq explained during a visit here last month. "With better education and health care and higher standards of living, families will be having less children and people will live longer. It is a natural process."

Japan has already borne this out. Right after the Pacific war, Japan experienced high birth rates of almost five children per family. Then came rapid industrialisation that coupled with better education programmes and population policies, encouraged numbers to fall fast. By 1995, Japan’s number of live births was down to 1.1 million, or half the 1946 figure.

Meanwhile, the Japanese were living longer. Indeed, the country now has the highest longevity rate in the world: 77 years for males and 84 for females.

By 2015, experts say 25 per cent of the country’s population will be 65 years or older. "The challenge is tremendous," said a Health and Welfare ministry official working on a new medical insurance scheme that would make health care more expensive.

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Kuroda says part of the reason for this is the government’s "misconception" that raising birth rates (alone) will change the ageing process in Japan". But he said: "This is not the answer." The expert says countries like China and India would do well to pay close attention to the mistakes Tokyo is currently making so that they can avoid repeating these in the future.

According to Kuroda, China and India by the middle of the next century will be experiencing what Japan is now going through. Apart from being the world’s most populous countries, the two nations are enjoying high rates of economic growth. Kuroda says with the current low birth rates in China — 1.9 children per family the nation will have seven per cent of its population above 65 years of age by 2010. In comparison, India will have senior citizens making up 12.3 per cent of its population by 2030.