To make its Himachal fortunes swing, BJP played the tribal card

The two communities will add up to roughly five per cent of the population of the state but they constitute almost one-third the population of Chamba district. And this falls in the Kangra Lok Sabha constituency of Union Minister Shanta Kumar; this could affect several seats in this area. The BJP leaders from the state have been crowing about the amendment while the Congress was so far oblivious of the electoral implications. The Lok Sabha passed the Bill on December 18 and the Rajya Sabha did so the next day without even a discussion.

Every percentage point counts in a state like Himachal where it is a close battle between two parties. That’s why the Congress, which has the benefit of incumbency, is not taking any chances. Its feedback is that the issue of corruption of Chief Minister P K Dhumal is going down well with the people and the meetings addressed by Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh, who made this his focus, were well-attended.

The Congress, has, however not forgotton that last time Sukh Ram queered its pitch by winning five seats and garnering 10 per cent of the vote though four were from his own area of Mandi which he had nurtured over the years.

The Congress has been negotiating with the Himachal Vikas Congress for seat adjustments despite the stigma attached to Sukh Ram. Mohsina Kidwai, AICC general secretary in charge of the state, and senior leader Motilal Vora have met Sukh Ram a couple of times. The BJP is also wooing him and Sukh Ram has held meetings with Arun Jaitly and O P Kohli in this regard. The BJP leaders, however, concede that Sukh Ram is ‘‘more inclined to tie up with the Congress.’’

The Congress might go for seat adjustments with Sukh Ram’s party, provided he settles for four to five seats and agrees not to contest himself, sources say. In the past few days he has been seeking ‘‘legal opinion’’ on the issue of his contesting. But this is unlikely to be acceptable to the Congress even as the party cannot wish away the ‘‘ground realities’’ of his support in Mandi. But it has to contend also with the opponents to the move inside the party, led by CLP leader Vir Bhadra Singh. They argue that the party may lose out on all the gains it might make through its anti-corruption campaign against the Dhumal ministry.

The Congrss put off the decision for two days at the meeting of its screening committee for the state — made up of Manmohan Singh, Ambika Soni and Sushil Kumar Shinde — which will now be held on Wednesday.

Ironically, the former communications minister is suddenly being wooed by both sides though he was caught with crores in his house and faces cases in the courts. Though the Congress had a four per cent lead in 1998, it lost out to the BJP which tied up with Sukh Ram.

So, the Feb 26 election in Himachal Pradesh has suddenly acquired an importance way beyond its size. If the BJP manages to retain the state, it would demonstrate that Gujarat was not an aberration and the Hindutva forces would get a further impetus in the other north Indian states going to the polls in October.

A Congress victory will signal the opposite and give the party some respite after Gujarat which had shaken its confidence.