Three cordons of security in place, Saddam digs in

‘‘The Republican Guard is essential to Saddam’s strategy for war,’’ said Gary Samore, Director of Studies with the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies and a former Clinton administration official. ‘‘He hopes they’ll be able to hold out in Baghdad long enough to create an international uproar that puts enough pressure on Washington and London so he’ll be able to survive.’’

The Americans and British, however, are hoping to peel Saddam’s best troops away from their leader by convincing them there is little future in defending a hated dictator and potential war criminal.

The inner core of Saddam’s military is made up of three rings: Republican Guard, Special Republican Guard and Special Security Organisation.

The Special Republican Guard, whose members have been culled from the Republican Guard and are known for their intense loyalty to Saddam, number about 15,000. The Special Security Organisation, the unit closest to Saddam and his family, has about 1,000 members and monitors other units for disloyalty.

Republican Guard members have been paid about 40 per cent more than the regular army personnel and given special housing and automobiles.

‘‘I don’t think Saddam can depend on the army at all,’’ said Francois Heisbourg, chairman of Geneva Centre for Security Policy and a former French Defence Ministry official.

Republican Guard divisions have the best equipment in the Iraqi military. These include Soviet-built T-72 tanks, which at about 30 years old are the newest in Saddam’s inventory, and anti-tank guided missiles.

Analysts said they expect the Republican Guard’s principal task will be to remain in urban areas. A likely clash could see the US Third Infantry Division matched up against the Republican Guard south of Baghdad, analysts said.

A key consideration for the Republican Guard and the other units will be when they deploy any chemical weapons, analysts said. If they use them too early, Iraq would lose the propaganda war.

The Republican Guard has spawned rivals for Saddam’s affection over the past decade. After the Gulf War, officers several coup attempts, prompting the dictator to purge their ranks and cull the most loyal for the Special Republican Guard.

Many of the Special Republican Guard are drawn from Saddam Hussein’s own Al-Bu Nasir tribe and from the cities of Tikrit, Baiji and Al-Sharkat. They are the only military troops allowed in Baghdad, and have been trained in street fighting. Even closer to Saddam is the Special Security Organisation, a large security force also assigned to protect him and his family. (LATWP)