The nuclear endgame

The Congress will hope PM8217;s reaffirmation in Beijing of India8217;s independent foreign policy, the consolidation of the Sino-Indian strategic partnership, and China8217;s 8220;pledge to promote bilateral cooperation in civil nuclear energy8221; will encourage the Left to rethink its blind ideological opposition to the deal.

To be sure, the communist leaders have said that their stand has nothing to do with Beijing8217;s. The fact, however, is that the Chinese opposition, until recently, to the nuclear deal and the Left objections were similar if not identical. In essence, they were about the nature of the emerging Indo-US partnership and whether it was directed against China.

Recall Beijing8217;s reaction to India8217;s nuclear tests on May 11 and 13, 1998. China8217;s response was muted after the first round of testing. Once it saw Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee8217;s letter to the US President Bill Clinton citing the 8220;China threat8221;, Beijing went ballistic on May 13. The CPM, too, had argued that Pokharan II would lead to India8217;s surrender to US imperialism.

Beijing8217;s recent worry was whether the Indo-US nuclear deal was part of a larger political design aimed at containing China. Having got credible reassurances from Dr Singh that India will not join any 8220;anti-China8221; alliance, Beijing has eased up its opposition to the nuclear deal.

Irrespective of the Left8217;s reaction to the prospect of Sino-Indian nuclear cooperation, the UPA government has every incentive to remove the widespread misperception that the nuclear deal was only about partnering the United States. The government will have ample opportunities in the next few days to show otherwise.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown8217;s visit next week will be a moment to highlight the new global imperatives of nuclear energy. Although Britain was one of the first countries to develop civilian reactors, it abandoned its atomic energy plans.

Despite the allergy of his Labour Party to all things nuclear, Brown has decided to revive nuclear power industry in Britain. The challenge of global warming implies nuclear energy will indeed form an important component of the energy mix in most major economies.

The visit of French President Nicholas Sarkozy at the end of this month should be the occasion for a formal bilateral agreement between the two countries for civilian nuclear cooperation, subject, of course, to international rules being changed and the IAEA approving the safeguards agreement with India.

If the Left digs a little into the origins of the Indo-US nuclear deal, they would find its roots very French and even left-of-centre.

Exactly ten years ago, in January 1998, when Inder Kumar Gujral was heading the United Front government CPI was part of it; CPM supported it, the visiting French president, Jacques Chirac, made the first soundings on a global nuclear deal with India.

This was full four months before the BJP came to power and conducted the nuclear tests. When Clinton8217;s America, Boris Yeltsin8217;s Russia and Jiang Zemin8217;s China were piling up pressure after the Pokharan, it was Chirac8217;s France that offered political cover to New Delhi. Along with Russia8217;s Vladimir Putin, Chirac made a serious bid to rewrite the rules of the Nuclear Suppliers Group in favour of India.

Around three years ago, France and Russia told India that the NSG rules could not be changed without a major US initiative. And that came in July 2005, when Dr Singh met President George W. Bush at the White House.

American leadership was a necessary but not sufficient political condition for ending India8217;s nuclear isolation. The implementation of the July 18 agreement involves the endorsement of the 35 members of the board of governors of the IAEA and the 45 members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group.

To regain access to international nuclear energy markets, India needs the support of all great powers; when the deal is implemented all major nuclear suppliers 8212; including the US, France, Russia, China and Canada 8212; will have the opportunity to sell reactors to India. The Indo-US civil nuclear initiative was never about being pro-US or anti-US. It was about changing the nuclear regime in favour of India.

That the world, which imposed sanctions against New Delhi after the nuclear tests a decade ago, is now eager promote India8217;s nuclear energy programme is not a favour to any particular party in India. It is recognition of India8217;s rise to power.

If the Congress can8217;t get the CPM to see these simple facts and walks away from the deal, heavens will not fall. India8217;s nuclear liberation is now a low-hanging fruit which the next government would be happy to pluck at once. After all, the BJP took advantage of the Congress government8217;s failure to conduct nuclear tests in December 1995. Having waited three and a half decades to resume international nuclear cooperation, India can afford to wait a few more months.

The writer is a professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore iscrmohanntu.edu.sg