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Journalism of Courage
In 1986, just before Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan from exile for the first time, Pakistan8217;s military dictator General Zia-ul-Haq told one of her American friends, 8216;8216;My greatest mistake was to let her live.8217;8217; When the friend narrated this episode to her, Ms Bhutto said realistically, 8216;8216;He is right.8217;8217; Beginning with Zia-ul-Haq8217;s decision to execute Pakistan first popularly elected leader, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Pakistan has witnessed a fundamental struggle between the country8217;s military-led establishment and populist forces led by the Bhutto family. Benazir Bhutto8217;s assassination is the latest twist in that conflict.
Like all great people, and political dynasties, the Bhuttos generate a lot of passion8212;both for and against. In the days to come we will read and hear many facts, factoids and falsehoods about the strengths, weaknesses and paradoxes of Benazir Bhutto. To me these are merely the subtext. The headline is that the Pakistani establishment8217;s nemesis has been removed from the scene, ostensibly by terrorists who have flourished in establishment-dominated Pakistan.
Pakistan8217;s civilian leaders of recent years including Benazir Bhutto get blamed for many things that are essentially the result of the establishment8217;s obsessions8212;with India, about Afghanistan and relations with the United States.
Benazir Bhutto had the combination of political brilliance, charisma, popular support and international recognition that made her a credible democratic alternative to Musharraf and acceptable to the international community. Her elimination from the scene is not only a personal loss to millions of Pakistanis who loved and admired her; it exposes Pakistan8217;s vulnerability and the urgent need to deal with it.
Bhutto8217;s assassination could be a setback to populist-democratic forces. But it also has the potential to mobilise strong backlash against the militarist and overly centralised paradigm of the Pakistani state. Getting through elections that his King8217;s Party, the PML-Q, would almost certainly lose if they were fair is not the only challenge facing Musharraf right now. With the help and support of the military, he can weather any immediate challenge to his authority. But Bhutto8217;s murder adds to Musharraf8217;s legitimacy problems.
Bhutto8217;s assassination highlights the fears about Pakistan that she voiced over the last several months. Years of dictatorship and sponsorship of Islamist extremism have made this nuclear-armed Muslim nation of 160 million people a safe haven for terrorists that threaten the world. Bhutto had the courage and vision to challenge both terrorism and the authoritarian culture that nurtured it. Her assassination has already exacerbated Pakistan8217;s instability and uncertainty.
Riots have been reported from several parts of the country as grief has fanned anger against a government that is deeply unpopular. People in Pakistan8217;s smaller provinces, Sindh and Balochistan, are particularly aggrieved and angered. Like her father before her, she was a leader from Sindh with national appeal. That she met a tragic end without much protection or comfort from the country8217;s ruling elite heightens the isolation of Sindhis and Balochis.
Barely two years ago, a missile attack by security forces killed octogenarian Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Bugti. The circumstances of Bhutto8217;s death8212;assassination by a terrorist8212;may be different but the net result is the same: systematic elimination of nationally recognised anti-establishment political leaders with strong constituencies.
The tragedy of December 27 may have been the work of a terrorist but for Bhutto8217;s supporters, the government is not without blame. Musharraf refused to accept Bhutto8217;s requests for an investigation assisted by the FBI or Scotland Yard into the earlier attempt on her life on October 18. Both agencies have greater competence in analysing forensic evidence than Pakistan8217;s notoriously corrupt and incompetent law enforcement agencies. The circumstances of the first assassination attempt remain mired in mystery as has often been the case with murders of Pakistan8217;s high profile political personalities.
Television images soon after Bhutto8217;s assassination showed fire engines hosing down the crime scene, in what can only be considered a calculated washing away of forensic evidence. Bhutto had publicly expressed fears that pro-extremist elements within Pakistan8217;s security services were complicit in plans to eliminate her. Instead of addressing those fears, Musharraf cynically rejected Bhutto8217;s request for international security consultants to be hired at her own expense.
This cynicism on the part of the Pakistani authorities is now causing most of Bhutto8217;s supporters to vent their anger against the Musharraf regime for her tragic death.
The United States might not be willing, at this stage, to review its policy of trusting the military-dominated regime led by Pervez Musharraf to secure and stabilise Pakistan. But as Musharraf becomes less and less credible in the eyes of his own people, it might have to.
The US should use its influence, acquired with more than 10 billion in economic and military aid, to persuade Pakistan8217;s military to loosen its grip on power and negotiate with politicians with popular support, most prominently Bhutto8217;s successors in her Pakistan People8217;s Party and Pakistan Muslim League PML leader Nawaz Sharif. Instead of calibrating terrorism, as Musharraf appears to have done, Pakistan must work towards eliminating terrorism, as Bhutto demanded.
The immediate consequence of the assassination might be the postponement of the parliamentary elections scheduled for January 8. The US is naively demanding that the elections should go ahead. They should but not necessarily as scheduled and certainly not without serious changes to the poll rigging structure already in place for the benefit of the King8217;s Party, PML-Q.
The PPP led in opinion polls, followed by Sharif8217;s PML-N. Now, the PPP is likely to benefit from a strong sympathy vote. Sharif has already announced that he is now joining the boycott of the polls called by several smaller political parties. If Musharraf goes ahead with elections as planned, it is unlikely they would have much credibility.
In her death, as in her life, Benazir Bhutto has drawn attention to the need for building a moderate Muslim democracy in Pakistan that cares for its people and allows them to elect its leaders. The war against terrorism, she repeatedly argued, cannot be won without mobilising the people of Pakistan against Islamist extremists, and bringing Pakistan8217;s security services under civilian control.
The writer is Director of Boston University8217;s Center for International Relations, and was an adviser to Benazir Bhutto
