The Count Begins Tomorrow

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The Controversy
Since the inception of the Project Tiger in 1972, individual states counted their tigers and often threw up inflated numbers to earn brownie points. While pugmark counting is a fairly accurate method, it requires expertise and can be easily manipulated. As early as in 1979, international experts pointed out how the percentage increase in tigers in India since 1972 was unrealistic compared to the lion population increase in Serengeti. In the Eighties, the number game boiled over and our tiger population crossed even the 4000 mark. Given the trend, experts believe the present official figure of 3642 is highly exaggerated and fear the actual tiger population is down to less than 1000.

The PROMISE
To end the debate, the Centre decided to conduct the national tiger census and come up with a realistic figure. The Project Tiger, Wildlife Institute of India and Indian Institute of Statistics jointly worked out a detailed method which the Centre claims will cut out bias and offer an authentic population range.

The Duration
The national census starts tomorrow. In Sunderbans, the process started on January 5 due to topographical compulsions. With various checks and balances in place, the process will go on for months. The report is scheduled to be announced in August this year.

The Method
First, a total scanning of the landscapes will be conducted for carnivore signs like pugs, scratch or scat. Next, scanning will be done through line transact method where officials follow fixed tracks and record findings. Each finding will be recorded for its latitude and longitude to ascertain the relative abundance on the map. Next, sample blocks from each density – high, medium, low and no – areas will be picked up and scanned extensively with technologies like camera trapping, digital pugmark photography and scat analysis, depending on the density. Sample size of the landscape will be determined in a way so that the population variability is within just 10 per cent.