The 18 others who don’t bow to Jaya

The attack on Jayalalitha would be further intensified tomorrow when Defence Minister George Fernandes holds his press conference. The strategy to survive without Jayalalitha is not without foundation.

If Jayalalitha has 18 members to dictate terms, there are 18 other MPs who have not taken any firm position as yet to vote in favour or against the Government. The 18 MPs belong to Bahujan Samaj Party, Indian National Lok Dal (Om Prakash Chautala), DMK and TMC. Though TMC leader has said, after its executive committee meeting recently, that it would back any non-BJP government. But G K Moopanar did not say whether his party would vote against the BJP. Even if TMC votes with the Congress and AIADMK, there are 15 others who would decide the fate of the Vajpayee Government.

The bravado of the BJP leaders is based on the assumption that BSP, Chautala and DMK would finally come to its aid. The party managers hope that if Jayalalitha goes to the Congress and the Third Front, the DMK would come to their aid, irrespective of the efforts made by Janata Dal leader H D Deve Gowda and Harkishan Singh Surjeet. Former Prime Minister V P Singh is also watching the political situation on the DMK front as the ruling Tamil Nadu party takes him in high esteem.

Chautala does not want a dismissal of the Bansi Lal Government in Haryana like the Samata Party of Bihar and AIADMK. He wants the BJP to withdraw support to the HVP and ensure the fall of Bansi Lal as Chief Minister. His argument is that even if one Lok Sabha MP of the HVP withdraw his support, the BJP gets four MPs in return.

The way Bahujan Samaj Party leader Kanshi Ram retracted his statement given at Ambala on Saturday is considered significant. Kanshi Ram had stated at Ambala that the BSP would vote against the BJP. However, he withdrew it yesterday completely. The BJP is desperately wooing Kanshi Ram to vote for it and in return, offering the post of chief ministership to Mayawati in UP. The BSP had voted with the BJP when voting took place in the Lok Sabha on the Bihar issue.

The BJP is also hopeful of breaking at least 10 MPs of the AIADMK who are completely fed up of her style of functioning. Power Minister P R Kumaramanglam and hardliners in the BJP feel that like her allies left her in the lurch, majority of her MPs would also desert her. But all this would happen only when the voting takes place in the Lok Sabha and not prior to it, sources claim.

The BJP leadership concede that irrespective of public utterances of Mulauam Singh Yadav and others, they would vote against the BJP. They also concede that if the BJP fails to get the support of the DMK, BSP and the INLD, there may be a possibility of the Samata Party and the BJD splitting on the voting eve.

In any case, the Congress has been sitting pretty. Except for working out modalities whether to bring a motion of no-confidence, the party feels that it is not the loser in the game. Even if the Vajpayee Government survives this round, the Congress would get an electoral ally in Jayalalitha as and when elections take place in Tamil Nadu which has 39 Lok Sabha seats.

There are indications that Arunachal Congress MPs and a few others are willing to support the Congress if there are indications that it is keen to form an alternative government. But the Congress is not in a hurry to take a decision. Most of its leaders including Sharad Pawar, Pranab Mukherjee, P Shiv Shanker are out of town now. K Natwar Singh is leaving for China for a week.