Tags:
Journalism of Courage
Things are rapidly coming to a head in West Asia. Last month, Israel conducted long-range air exercises over the Mediterranean, interpreted as a signal that Iran should desist from the trajectory upon which they are accused of having set their nuclear programme. For all practical purposes, it was a dress rehearsal; should permission be given soon to attack Iran8217;s nuclear facilities, both the Israeli and US administrations want the IDF to be ready. Many, in fact, view the present period of presidential transition in America as the most opportune from Israel8217;s viewpoint for attacking Iran; a possible Obama administration, it is feared, might not be as sympathetic to Israeli concerns as the present administration.
This weekend, it was the Iranians8217; turn to rattle a few sabres. As part of naval exercises at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran test-fired a number of missiles over two successive days, including some that are capable of striking Israel. These tests follow a warning from Iran earlier that Tehran would strike Tel Aviv and American interests in West Asia if attacked. While this last development can be read essentially as Iran trying to manufacture a deterrent, there is nevertheless real danger from this escalation of the confrontation already under way between Iran and the West over its nuclear programme.
This is the reason why the tests are causing jitters in West Asian and Western capitals. Negotiations between the West and Iran over its nuclear programme are going nowhere, with Iran making it clear once again last week that it would not comply with Security Council resolutions requiring it to stop enriching uranium. Frustration is growing in London, Paris and Berlin over what they view as Iranian intransigence. In a sign of the Europeans tightening the screws on Tehran, the Sarkozy government put pressure on Total, the French energy corporation, to cancel its plans to develop one of Iran8217;s natural gas fields.
Talk continues to emerge from sections of the Washington establishment, particularly from the vice-president8217;s office, of possible direct military action. However, the US8217;s December 2007 National Intelligence Estimate concluded that Iran had halted its work on nuclear weapons in 2003, a finding which makes the possibility of military action somewhat remote. Instead, reports have emerged of the US Congress funding a major escalation of covert operations against Iran, designed to destabilise the country8217;s religious leadership as demanded by the Bush administration.
In the meantime, Iran8217;s 3800 centrifuges continue to spin, building up its supplies of low-enriched uranium. It is projected that, by the end of next year, Iran will have acquired enough such material to convert into sufficient highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon. This is what worries Israel: its exercises were to demonstrate its readiness to launch air-strikes if Iran were to cross the nuclear threshold. They were also aimed at putting pressure on the international community to do something about what the Israelis consider an existential threat. Israel has now responded to the Iranian missile tests by putting on display one of its aircraft that it says can spy on Iran.
Iran8217;s missile tests are a signal to the world that it is a rising regional power that will follow its own interests and can no longer be pushed around. And, in case his adversaries didn8217;t get the point of the tests, a commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Hossein Salami, underlined it: 8220;Our hands are always on the trigger.8221; It is also possible that Iran is feeling squeezed by economic sanctions; its aggressive posturing may be an attempt to cover up its weaknesses, lest its adversaries be tempted to further pressurise it.
Whatever the case may be, the region is once again on the edge with a real sense of looming crisis. Both sides are loath to compromise, for fear that their credibility would be affected. The danger to the world is that, amidst this back and forth between the two sides, either might overplay its hand or misread a signal. And if that happens, the mess in Iraq and Afghanistan would end up being a sideshow.
The writer teaches at King8217;s College, London harsh.pantkcl.ac.uk
