Terrorism146;s after-shocks

There is a grave risk that the result of the Spanish elections could be construed as having been driven by acts of terrorism that killed 200 and wounded 1,500 last Thursday. But a more sober assessment would indicate that the ruling regime of Jose Maria Aznar, by promoting the idea of ETA 8212; the militant wing of the Basque separatist movement 8212; being the culprit, was more to blame for the anger of the anguished people and the victory of Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero8217;s Socialist Workers8217; Party. Unfortunately, the view that terrorism by Islamic radicals affiliated to the Al-Qaeda 8212; if not a part of it 8212; has dramatically reversed the expected outcome of the elections has gained ground across the world and would be difficult to get rid of in the coming days and months. This could lead to Al-Qaeda regarding the developments in Spain as a great triumph and election-eve terrorism in democracies could emerge as a new terrorist strategy.

This perception is intensified by the fact that the Socialists in Spain were opposed to sending troops to Iraq, as were over 90 per cent of the population, although this had not been a sufficient cause to sway public opinion until the terror attacks last week. The implication then is that radical jihadi terrorists have acquired the ability to influence the outcome of election processes in democracies, with far reaching consequences for the world in general and the war against terrorism in particular. It may be recalled that the assumption that the mujahideen had defeated a super power in Afghanistan in the 1980s had given an impetus to radical militancy and terrorism in J038;K and other parts of the world after the 1980s.

The Spanish prime minister-elect, in accordance with his election promise, has announced the withdrawal of troops from Iraq by June 30, if the UN mandate is not available. This will put additional pressure on the US to search for UN cover in the face of the continuing violence in Iraq. This should, indeed, have been done immediately after the war in April last year. If it does this now, it would run the risk of being seen as bowing to terrorist pressures. As it is, Spain had been a staunch supporter of the US-led war in Iraq and was at loggerheads with France, Germany and even Italy over its stance. Today, it wants to radically change that history, loosen its alliance with the US and side with France and Germany in forging a new European unity to balance the US and build a 8220;multipolar8221; world 8212; a project that France has been anxious to accomplish for a decade. This would certainly hold consequences for the future, not just in terms of the impact it could have on institutions like the NATO, but in terms of changing the contours of new 8220;old8221; Europe.