Technical snags hold up Pak tests

The problems were being worked out even as high-powered Pakistani delegations fanned out to milk the situation. 8220;The current assessment is the longer they hold back the less likely they are to test,8221; the sources said.

But as reported in The Indian Express yesterday, the United States is rejecting the idea of providing a nuclear umbrella to Pakistan. The New York Times reported from Beijing today that even China had declined to offer Pakistan nuclear cover.

Other analysts say under these circumstances, Islamabad may betempted to go for it but only after assessing what else is on offer. Domestic and internal compulsions in Pakistan will also weigh in any decision by the Nawaz Sharif government.

Preparations also seem to be afoot for some missile tests, the sources said. Pakistani scientists appear ready to test a missile called the Tarmuk, a M-11 variant. 8220;It is entirely possible the missile test will happen first,8221; the sources added.

The Clinton administration has been talking to the Sharif government through back channels using influential Senators like Tom Harkin, an Iowa Democrat who has traditionally been sympathetic to Islamabad. The Pakistan Prime Minister has conveyed that two main conditions for holding back on the tests. One, he wants the Pressler Law revoked immediately so that Pakistan can get its 28 F-16s and resumption of economic aid. Two, he wants positive steps towards a mutual security pact.

The demands and offers will be finessed in two-way talks through the week. Sharif is sending a two-memberteam comprising Akram Zaki, chairman of the foreign relations committee in the Pakistani senate, and Syeda Abida Hussain, a former ambassador here and now member of his cabinet.

A three-member US team led by Harkin is also expected to go to Islamabad in Friday. Also on the agenda will be whether the F-16s the US will be returning will be nuclear capable. The original supply of F-16s, as contracted, were to be nuclear capable. But this was halted after a CIA analyst blew the whistle on the supply. The analyst, Richard Barlow, was subsequently fired. It now remains to be seen if Washington will arm the F-16s with nuclear-drop capability in the event of the planes being returned.

Secretary of State Madeleine Albright signalled yesterday that the administration was going to throw its weight behind the Congress attempting to ease the passage of arms and aid to Pakistan. 8220;The administration will work hard with Congress, whose view of South Asia is already changing, to respond to Pakistan8217;s economic andsecurity concerns,8221; Albright said in a speech yesterday to the US Coast Guard Academy.

If the Pressler law is amended, experts expect a flood of 8220;defensive equipment8221; like early warning systems and radars to flow into Pakistan. The revocation will also reopen the traditional military-to-military ties between the Pentagon and the Pakistani military establishment.

But the US is in as much of a bind as Pakistan over the developments.

Notwithstanding any resumption of arms and aid to Islamabad, one intelligence analyst said Washington had lost the restraining hand it had on Pakistani manufacture of fissile material and the operational tempo of Khushab.8217; 8220;Kahuta and Khushab will be operating full steam, if they already aren8217;t,8221; the analyst said, referring to the two key Pakistani reactors which produced fissile material.