NEW DELHI, March 5: Chandrababu Naidu's decision to postpone his arrival in Delhi today, the cancellation of the United Front's Core committee meeting, and the Janata Dal's preference to sit in the Opposition - these are all straws in the wind that the BJP may swing a government in Delhi.The fact is that a crucial number of United Front members are finding it difficult to stomach the Congress. That is why the task of forming a non-BJP government is proving to be such an uphill one even though the two formations with their 265 MPs had a head start over the 250 tally of the BJP and its allies.The UF is sharply divided over giving support to a Congress-led government. Naidu has already dubbed the Congress as his enemy number one. The Thursday resolution of the CWC seeking Mrs Gandhi's help to arrive at a consensus on the CPP leader (who will become Prime Minister in the event of a Congress-led government) is expected to harden his anti-Congress position.He is the only member of the UF who had raisedstrong objections to Sonia Gandhi to the extent of suggesting an amendment in the Constitution to debar naturalised citizen from holding high office.Given the pressure that Naidu is under from his party MLAs who have to face a State election in a year to go with the BJP, the problem before the TDP chief appears to be how to hit upon the modality of not appearing pro-BJP but ensuring that the Congress does not form a government.The TDP's main fight in Andhra Pradesh is with the Congress. The BJP has increased its popular vote in Andhra Pradesh from less than 6 per cent in 1996 to more than 24 per cent. The Kammas, who have formed the backbone of the TDP, voted for the BJP in several parts of the State. On the other hand, a section of the Muslims has swung to the Congress this time, and this is also being cited as a reason to go with the BJP. However, the decision is not so easy for Naidu, who as the convenor of the UF has also been an important player nationally. In the BJP parivar he will only enjoy thestatus of one more regional satrap.On the other hand, Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party struck a different note today by asserting that it is ready to support a Congress-led government. Mulayam seems to be playing for the goodwill of the Congress. He may hope to become a candidate acceptable to the Congress at a future date if he is supportive of the Congress today. He may also want to stitch up an alliance with the Congress in UP where Assembly polls could be held before long.The `Southern' elements in the UF represented by the TDP and to a lesser extent the DMK, and within the CPM (the Kerala group) find an alliance with the Congress difficult because it is their principal adversary. The CPM's Bengal group may be more willing to do business with the Congress today, now that the party has been considerably weakened, and Mamata Bannerji and the BJP are their principal rivals.For the same reason, it is difficult for the Congress to accept the leadership of the United Front. That is why it pulleddown the Front government. If there had not been a Jain Commission report, the party would have had to invent one.The Congress is caught in an intense power struggle with a section in the party working overtime to prevent Sharad Pawar, who has emerged as the natural claimant for the top `gaddi', from making it there. The opposition to him is taking the shape of an opinion that the Congress should sit in the opposition and rebuild the party. Sonia Gandhi is keeping her cards close to her chest but those considered close to her are taking the line that it is more prudent to sit out.Unless the consensus swerves around to him, Sitaram Kesri would prefer someone in the UF heading a coalition government and this would be one way to overcome the contradictions that are dogging the non-BJP family. But this is not acceptable to many in the Congress. Some have suggested the name of Chandra Shekhar as a possible Prime Minister because he belongs neither to the UF nor to the Congress but this too does not have manytakers as of now.Pawar, who considers himself a whisker away from power, is pulling out all stops to try and muster adequate support to try and compensate for the loss of the TDP. He has been in touch with Jayalalitha and Mamata Bannerji with whom he has an excellent equation. But the AIADMK supremo is likely to use his overtures to extract a higher price from the BJP for her outside support than to ditch the BJP at this stage. It will not be possible for Mamta even remotely to align with the CPM.
