Spend the points you’ve earned, Bush

When asked what lessons he has learned from watching his father as president, George W. Bush has always had the same response: ‘‘S...

When asked what lessons he has learned from watching his father as president, George W. Bush has always had the same response: ‘‘Spend your political capital.’’ Bush believes that his dad was too reluctant to use his stratospheric approval ratings after the Gulf War to push an agenda forward. It was a mistake that cost Bush Senior the White House. As he looks at his own lofty ratings these days, the president would do well to heed his own advice and use his muscle. A place to start might be the Middle East.

Despite his sky-high poll numbers, the president has been astonishingly cautious in recent months, caving in to anyone in Washington with a fat Rolodex or a loud microphone. In March he buckled under to the steel lobby and slapped a 30 percent tariff on imported steel. In April he pandered to the farm lobby, adding a whopping $80 billion to the already lavish subsidies to farmers. And for a month he has wobbled on policy in the Middle East. New initiatives are announced only to be abandoned as they face a volley of opposition from a coalition of neoconservatives and the Christian right.

The president’s basic approach to the Middle East is correct. He is horrified by the suicide bombings and understands Israel’s need to respond to them. He also believes, however, that only a political settlement will resolve the problem. He endorses a Palestinian state and has announced an international conference to begin talking about all this. But words mean nothing in the Middle East. (Reagan once presented his own plan to solve the conflict. Months later, no one even remembered it.) The president must aggressively use his power and prestige — his political capital — to push the Palestinians, Israelis and Arabs toward substantive political talks. This is not going to bring peace tomorrow, but it might well lower the tensions, which is good for them — and for the United States.

The administration is right to push the Palestinians forcefully to stop terrorism. It should go further and urge them to make absolutely clear that they seek a state that will exist alongside Israel, not instead of it. If Israelis can be assured that the threat they face is territorial, not existential, their capacity for compromise will grow enormously.

Some of his advisers urge President Bush to bypass or replace Yasir Arafat. That’s understandable. Arafat has been a disastrous leader: corrupt, weak and utterly duplicitous. But undermining him can work only as a long-term strategy — especially now that Sharon’s invasion has more than doubled Arafat’s approval ratings (they had been sagging below 40 percent only a few months ago). Popular alternatives to Arafat exist, but remember that they are all more radical than he is.

Similarly, Bush’s proposals to reform the Palestinian Authority are smart. But if peace is going to wait for the PA to turn into a liberal democracy, then we are in for a long, long wait. The reason to negotiate with the PA is to solve a political problem, not to produce good governance.

The president must use his well-deserved reputation as a friend of Israel to influence Ariel Sharon. Left to his own devices, Sharon cannot make compromises. His party and his main rival, Benjamin Netanyahu, will keep pushing him to the right. But if the administration — with one voice — urges Sharon to start talking peace, it will give him an excuse to move to the center, which is still where most Israelis are. Polls released last week show that, even now, almost 60 percent of Israelis support an international conference to exchange land for peace. The late Teddy Kollek, mayor of Jerusalem, used to say that the person who could cut a deal with the Palestinians would have to be ‘‘a bastard for peace.’’ Sharon has amply demonstrated his credentials on the first count. This will be his chance to reveal them on the second.

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Finally, Bush must put presure on the Saudis to show that they are serious about their peace offer. One way to send that message would be for them to meet with an Israeli official. Colin Powell could ask his Saudi and Israeli counterparts to join him to discuss the upcoming peace conference. It would be a historic moment and Israeli public support for the conference would probably rise to 75 percent.

Of course, the president could play it safe and do nothing. But we know the likely outcome. The violence will continue, events will spiral out of control and, in a year or so, America will get dragged in anyway. Except then it will be in the white heat of crisis, with attitudes hardened, and bad blood flowing. And the president’s approval rating may not be 77 percent but 57 percent, and heading south.

(By special arrangement with (c) Newsweek Inc 2002)